Category: Insights

Dow Theory Signals Bear Market in Bonds on 12/18/24

posted on: December 19, 2024

Powell’s Hawkish Tone Triggers Major Shifts in TLT and IEF Overview: All markets, notably bonds, reacted negatively to Powell’s more hawkish stance, as investors had anticipated more substantial and frequent rate cuts. The big drop TLT and IEF experienced on 12/18/24 triggered a primary bear market signal. Later today, or tomorrow, I will write about […]

Bonds at crossroads: Set up for a potential bear market signal for TLT and IEF completed on 11/27/24

posted on: November 29, 2024

Dissecting the most recent price action for TLT & IEF. Key price levels to monitor Overview: the most recent rally within an extended secondary (bearish) reaction has set up TLT and IEF for a potential primary bear market signal. The trend remains bullish to this day, but if the key prices I show in this […]

When Trends Speak Louder Than Data: Why Trend Following Wins Against Macro Investing

posted on: November 21, 2024

AI’s Verdict: Trend Following Trumps Macro in the Investment Arena I often receive emails highlighting macroeconomic data that supposedly contradicts or challenges the signals provided by price action—or trend-following—in markets like stocks, crypto, bonds, etc. These messages can give the impression that trend-following alone isn’t enough to keep us on the right side of the […]

Gold and Silver at a Crossroads: Bull Continuation or Bear Market Ahead?

posted on: November 20, 2024

Breaking Down Gold and Silver: A Critical Moment Overview: In a similar fashion to the gold and Silver miner’s ETFs, gold and silver reached a make-or-break moment on 20/19/24. The setup for a potential bear market has been completed, and the line on the sand has been drawn. In this post, we examine the key […]

Precious Metals Miners at a Crossroads: Bull Continuation or Bear Market Ahead?

posted on: November 19, 2024

Breaking Down the Gold and Silver Miners ETF: A Critical Moment Overview: The gold and silver miners ETF reached a make-or-break moment on 11/19/24. The setup for a potential bear market has been completed, and the line on the sand has been drawn. While gold and silver themselves have not yet completed the setup for […]

Bullish again: Bull market signal for Bitcoin and Ethereum triggered on 11/7/24

posted on: November 14, 2024

It took a while for Ethereum to confirm Bitcoin, but it happened at last. Let’s recap the technical landscape for Bitcoin. Bitcoin and Ethereum made their last bear market lows on 8/5/24. A rally followed such lows until 8/23/24 (Ethereum) and 8/26/24 (Bitcoin). Such a rally qualified as a secondary reaction against the bearish trend. […]

Andrew Horowitz interviewed Manuel Blay on The Disciplined Investor’s podcast

posted on: September 30, 2024

We discussed what works and does not work to successfully time the stock market. I debunked many fundamental factors that have zero predictive power but nonetheless continue to be used by many to try to guess the market’s next move. I focused on what works: margin debt, market health, and some other factors. I discussed […]

Bull market for the gold and silver miners ETFs (GDX & SIL) confirmed on 9/24/24

posted on: September 27, 2024

Chinese Stimulus Sparks Melt-Up in Gold, Silver, and Mining ETFs. Overview: The markets were sniffing the Chinese stimulus days before it was official. All assets are in a melt-up mode; GDX led the parade, and finally, SIL caught up. The bull market in precious metals has been confirmed. Once again, the principle of confirmation saved […]

Precious Metals Bull Market Confirmed on 9/24/24: Gold and Silver Miners Soar

posted on: September 27, 2024

Chinese Stimulus Sparks Melt-Up in Gold, Silver, and Mining ETFs. Overview: The markets were sniffing the Chinese stimulus days before it was official. All assets are in a melt-up mode; gold led the parade, and finally, silver caught up. The bull market in precious metals has been confirmed. Once again, the principle of confirmation saved […]

3 Fundamental Blunders That Led Me to Trend Following

posted on: September 21, 2024

How Misplaced Trust in ‘Expert’ Opinions Led Me to Embrace Technical Analysis If you’ve been following me for a while, you know I firmly believe in trend following. I’ve learned that price action contains most—if not all—the information you need to succeed in the stock market (or any market, for that matter). But why did […]

Not so bullish now: Setup for a potential bear market signal for GDX and SIL completed

posted on: August 31, 2024

The primary trend remains bullish until proven otherwise Overview: GDX and Sil underwent a secondary reaction against the primary bull market. The recent price action resulted in a setup for a potential bear market signal being completed. Please mind the word “potential”, which implies that the primary bull market remains in force. GDX broke up […]

From Indecision to Confirmation: US Bonds Show Clear Bullish Trends

posted on: August 1, 2024

Exploring the Bullish Implications of TLT’s Recent Breakout Overview: On 7/15/24, I wrote that there was indecision concerning the trend for US bonds. Depending on the time frame one got contradictory readings. You can get the details here. The indecision is over. On 7/31/24, TLT (long-term maturity bonds ETF) surged higher, which has bullish implications […]