Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for April 20: Primary bull market signaled by the “classical/Rhea” Dow Theory on April 19th

posted on: April 20, 2016

Gold non confirmation continues US STOCKS The primary and secondary trend (as determined by Schannep’s Dow Theory) is bullish, as explained here and here. Yesterday, April 19th, the Transports broke out above its March 18th, 2016 closing highs (secondary reaction highs), and, hence, according to the “Rhea/classical” Dow Theory (which only uses the Industrials and […]

Dow Theory Update for April 18: Silver is making higher highs unconfirmed by gold

posted on: April 18, 2016

A secondary reaction for precious metals at hand? US STOCKS The primary and secondary trend (as determined by Schannep’s Dow Theory) is bullish, as explained here and here. GOLD AND SILVER The primary trend and secondary trend is bullish, as reported here and here. SLV has recently made higher closing highs which have been unconfirmed […]

Dow Theory Update for April 14: More about the primary bull market signal for stocks

posted on: April 14, 2016

Trends for gold and silver and their stocks unchanged This is going to be a long post. Please bear with me, and take your time to absorb it. Since writing this post has taken a good deal of focus and energy, I’d likely take a pause in the coming days (unless trends change). Yesterday, a […]

Dow Theory Update for April 13: Primary bull market signaled for US stocks today

posted on: April 13, 2016

Dow Theory Update for March 13: Primary bull market signaled for US stocks today No time for writing now, since I am busy acting on what I see on the charts. Today, the SPY and INDU have bettered their secondary reaction closing highs of April 1st, 2016, and, according to Schannep’s Dow Theory a primary […]

Dow Theory Update for April 5: US Stocks set up for primary bull market

posted on: April 5, 2016

Gold and Silver close to secondary reaction, but not there yet US STOCKS The primary trend is bearish, as explained here: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-14.html The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against primary bearish trend) as explained here. Finally, stocks have set up for a primary bull market. After a long and strong secondary reaction (call it […]

Dow Theory Update for March 21: More on the primary bull market signal for SLV and GLD

posted on: March 21, 2016

Not setup for primary bull market in stocks yet US STOCKS The primary trend is bearish, as explained here: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-14.html Here is an additional post concerning the likely decline to follow primary bear markets signals: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-special-issue-additional.html The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against primary bearish trend) as explained here. No setup for a primary […]

Dow Theory Update for March 17 (after the close): Primary bull market signaled for SLV and GLD.

posted on: March 17, 2016

No time to write now. Today SLV has bettered its 2/12/2016 closing high, and has, thus, confirmed GLD. A primary bull market for both GLD and SLV has been signaled at today’s close. More about the signal, if time permits, tomorrow. Sincerely, The Dow Theorist

Dow Theory Update for March 17: Trends unchanged

posted on: March 17, 2016

No setup for primary bull market in stocks yet US STOCKS The primary trend is bearish, as explained here: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-14.html Here is an additional post concerning the likely decline to follow primary bear markets signals: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-special-issue-additional.html The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against primary bearish trend) as explained here. No setup for a primary […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (IV)

posted on: March 10, 2016

Will future secular bear markets allow the Dow Theory to outperform buy and hold? Will future secular bear markets be so obliging to the Dow Theory as past ones? The preceding two posts of this saga (here and here) dealt with the Dow Theory performance under secular bear markets. I concluded that I thought that […]

Dow Theory Update for March 3: Primary bull market for SIL and GDX signaled today

posted on: March 3, 2016

Secondary reaction in US stocks continues unabated US STOCKS The primary trend is bearish, as explained here: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-14.html Here is an additional post concerning the likely decline to follow primary bear markets signals: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-special-issue-additional.html The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against primary bearish trend) as explained here. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2016/02/dow-theory-update-for-february23.html No setup for a primary bull […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Why drawdowns matter

posted on: March 1, 2016

And why most investors should avoid them Some weeks ago, one reader of this Dow Theory blog alleged that the focus on “timing” the market, and hence avoiding drawdowns was not a good idea, since in the long run US stocks (or at least US stock indices) end up being winners. Furthermore, no dividends are […]

Dow Theory Update for February 23: Secondary (bullish) reaction against primary bear market signaled on February 22

posted on: February 23, 2016

Trends for precious metals unchanged US STOCKS The Transports has been rallying for 23 trading days since its Jan 20 closing lows. The INDU and SP500 have been rallying for 7 trading days and 11 calendar days. Hence, 3 indices have rallied more than 10 calendar days (it suffices just two). And the average […]