Category: Insights

Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (III)

posted on: February 8, 2016

Additional remarks concerning performance under secular bear markets As a consequence of my second post concerning the Dow Theory stress-test, Alpha Dow posted this comment: Hi there. First of all — I love the site. I’m an 18yr disciple of Dow Theory and a subscriber to Schannep and a practitioner myself. There is a dearth […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (II)

posted on: February 2, 2016

Performance under secular bear markets On December 7th, 2015 I started what is going to be a new “saga”. Its aim is to put the Dow Theory under a “stress-test”. We will try to think out of the box and imagine adverse scenarios which hitherto have not occurred yet. How would the Dow Theory perform […]

Dow Theory Update for January 26: Secondary (bullish) reaction for Gold and Silver against primary bear market signaled today

posted on: January 26, 2016

US STOCKS The primary and secondary trend is bearish, as explained here: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-14.html Here is an additional post concerning the likely decline to follow primary bear markets signals: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-special-issue-additional.html No secondary reaction has developed yet, albeit it could happen any moment now as explained here. GOLD AND SILVER The primary trend is bearish as explained […]

Dow Theory Update for January 25: Will a secondary (bullish) reaction against the primary bear market materialize soon?

posted on: January 25, 2016

Trends unchanged US STOCKS For roughly 2 ½ months stocks have been declining. Dave Moening of “StateoftheMarkets.com”, whom I hold in high regard, has recently penned that investor’s sentiment is very bearish, and hence, a rally is to be expected. He writes that the odds now favor that one month from now stocks will […]

Dow Theory Update for January 20: Primary trend for gold and silver miners finally turns bearish

posted on: January 20, 2016

US Stocks break below the August 25th, 2015 closing lows US STOCKS The primary and secondary trend is bearish, as explained here: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-14.html Here is an additional post concerning the likely decline to follow primary bear markets signals: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-special-issue-additional.html The SPY has declined a further ca. –8.04%following the primary bear market signal of December 11, […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Very long term trend turned bearish as per the Dow Theory when applied using weekly bars

posted on: January 19, 2016

Dismal technical picture In my post of September 7, 2015 I said that, the August scare notwithstanding, the very long term trend as gauged by weekly bars remained bullish and that the recent decline that started in July and bottomed on August was merely a secondary reaction against the long term bullish trend. This article […]

Dow Theory Review for 2015

posted on: January 14, 2016

US Stocks Let’s briefly recap how our Dow Theory analysis fared in 2015. Did we do a good job at determining the primary trend of the markets? 2014, as explained here, was a good year for those applying the Dow Theory to stocks, gold, silver and their miners. 2015 has been a good year too […]

Dow Theory Update for January 8: How long will it take for the next primary bull market signal to be flashed?

posted on: January 8, 2016

Trends unchanged Yesterday, January 7th, the US stock market made lower confirmed lows. As I have explained in the last two posts (here and here), the primary bear market is in full gear and no secondary (bullish) reaction against the primary bear market has occurred yet. In a past post, I explained that following a […]

Dow Theory Update for January 6: US Stocks remain under bear market spell

posted on: January 6, 2016

Joshua Brown, of the Reformed Broker, sees global bear market Trends have not changed since my last post of December 24th. Market action, though, seems to confirm the picture I have been depicting during December: Be cautious with US stocks, and, after all, gold and silver miners might not be so weak after all. I […]

Dow Theory Update for December 24: Trends unchanged.

posted on: December 24, 2015

Unless there are major changes in the markets, I will post sparingly in the next few days. I wish the followers of this Dow Theory blog a merry Christmas. US STOCKS The primary and secondary trend is bearish, as explained here: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-14.html Here is an additional post concerning the likely decline to follow primary bear […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Additional thoughts concerning further declines following Schannep’s Dow Theory primary bear market signals

posted on: December 16, 2015

Updated statistical record Last Friday 11th a primary bear market was signaled for US stocks. More about the entrails of this primary bear market signal here. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-14.html I wrote that investors better heed primary bear market signals as determined by Schannep’s Dow Theory, as the statistical record compiled by Schannep in his book (page 108) […]

Dow Theory Update for December 14: Primary bear market signaled for US Stocks last Friday 11

posted on: December 14, 2015

Precious metals trends unchanged. US STOCKS I am writing at the open of December 14. I refer to the price action seen last Friday 11 at the close. My Dow Theory Update of last December 9thwarned that US Stocks were flirting with a primary bear market signal. I pointed out that the Transports had made […]