Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for September 23: US Stocks set up for primary bull market

posted on: September 23, 2015

On September 22nd, both the SPY and the Transports declined by more than 3%. The SPY declined -3.13% and the Transports -3.88%. Today such declines have been extended. The Industrials failed yesterday and today to decline by more than 3%. However, as per Schannep’s Dow Theory, it suffices with just one index to decline more […]

Dow Theory Update for September 19: Stocks on secondary (bullish) reaction since Sep 16th

posted on: September 18, 2015

Primary Trends unchanged US STOCKS The primary trend is bearish, as was explained here and here. On 9/16/2015 the SPY and the Industrials bettered its 08/27/2015 closing highs, and hence confirmed the Transports which had already done so some days ago. All in all, on 9/16/2015: a) The three indices we monitor had […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Lessons learned from the Chinese stock market crash (II)

posted on: September 14, 2015

How to exit when the Dow Theory refuses to setup “orderly” primary bear market signals. Recently, I wrote about the primary bear market signal for Chinese stocks. As you well know this primary bear market signal came much too late, if we are to judge from the percentage decline from the top to the exit […]

Dow Theory special issue: Why the Dow Theory uses daily bars, not weekly and for good reason

posted on: September 7, 2015

Primary and secondary trends for stocks, gold and silver and their ETFs miners unchanged. Travis, one reader of this blog, recently posted a comment whereby he asked why I use daily bars instead of weekly bars to determine what allegedly is the long-term trend. What follows is my answer, which deserves a post of its […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Primary bear market for Chinese stocks signaled last Friday 21st

posted on: August 24, 2015

And some thoughts concerning US Stocks… Market relevant events continue to pile up, while time remains in short supply. Last Friday, FXI broke below the lows of the last secondary reaction (which were made on October, 10th, 2014), and, accordingly confirmed HAO, which had already done so on July 7th, 2015. Confirmed lower lows, means […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Was it a primary bear market signal under the classical Dow Theory?

posted on: August 21, 2015

Bank of America seems to think so As reported by Zero Hedge, BofA seems to have detected a primary bear market signal by applying the Rhea/classical Dow Theory, as you can read here. However, I have my qualms as to the correctness of such a signal under the classical Dow Theory. On the other hand, […]

Dow Theory Update for August 21 (II): More about the primary bear market signaled for US stocks at the close of August 20

posted on: August 21, 2015

Some hours before, I wrote that yesterday, as per my reading of the Dow Theory (which is Schannep’s with some minor quirks) a primary bear market was signaled. Let’s delve further into it. Here you have an updated chart: Anatomy of a primary bear market signal. As you can see, on the left side of […]

Dow Theory Update for August 21: Primary bear market for stocks (as per my Reading) signaled on August 20

posted on: August 21, 2015

I am writing before the open of August 21st. I hope to be able to post later today, and give you more ample information as to the new primary bear market in US Stocks. Sincerely, The Dow Theorist

Dow Theory Update for August 19: Lessons learned from the Chinese stock market crash (I)

posted on: August 19, 2015

Trends unchanged. This post was overdue, but time was scarce. While I am an ardent believer in the Dow Theory (of any persuasion whatsoever), I try not to be a fool. The Dow Theory is, in my opinion, the best mean to extract out performance and diminish drawdowns, providedthe market obliges. By an “obliging” market, […]

Dow Theory Update for August 5: No primary bear market signal for US Stocks (yet or never)

posted on: August 5, 2015

Trends unchanged for US Stocks and gold universe US STOCKS The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market), as explained here. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/07/dow-theory-update-for-july-1-dissecting.html All indices rallied more than 3% off their July 8th closing lows. So now either: a) Stocks jointly violate […]

Dow Theory Update for July 29: Lessons (re)learned from the precious metals universe and Chinese stocks

posted on: July 29, 2015

Trends remain unchanged US STOCKS The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market), as explained here. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/07/dow-theory-update-for-july-1-dissecting.html All indices rallied more than 3% off their July 8th closing lows. So now either: a) Stocks jointly violate their secondary reaction lows, in […]

Dow Theory Update for July 15: Primary bear market for (paper) Gold and silver signaled today

posted on: July 15, 2015

I don’t have much time to blog today. However, take my word for it: GLD by violating March 17, 2015 closing lows has signaled a primary bear market today. Thus, the entire precious metals universe (and their gold and silver miners ETFs) is in a bearish mode. The primary trend for stocks remains bullish, albeit […]