Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for June 23: We shouldn’t be cocksure, mindless technicians

posted on: June 23, 2014

Trends unchanged In the last few days, I have written several posts disdaining fundamentalist myopia (for example, here and here). I could even look cocksure about the infallibility of technical analysis (and especially the Dow Theory), and, hence, as myopic as the very fundamentalists I criticize. So, yes: I have my fundamentally-based fears. Of course, […]

Dow Theory special issue: Today’s volume for the S&P 500 has been very bearish

posted on: June 20, 2014

Intelligent money (whatever that is) seems to be dumping S&P stocks While this doesn’t entail a primary bear market signal, nor (at least yet) a secondary reaction against the primary bull market, it certainly displays that something is brewing. Given that the S&P closed down, I’d say today’s huge volume might be indicative of, at […]

Dow Theory Update for June 20: Gold and Silver miners ETFs close to signaling primary bull market signal

posted on: June 20, 2014

Industrials make higher highs. Yesterday, I couldn’t post. My apologies. Readers of this Dow Theory blog know that I spare no punches when it comes to criticizing some market letters writers. However, Dave Moenning, of the “stateofthemarkets.com”, together with Schannep, of “thedowtheory.com“, is worth of praise. Yesterday, Dave posted his latest article entitled “2014: […]

Dow Theory Update for June 18: The SPY makes a higher closing high unconfirmed

posted on: June 18, 2014

SLV makes higher highs unconfirmed by GLD US Stocks The SPY, Transports and Industrials closed up. However, neither the Industrials, nor the Transports deigned to confirm. One day of non-confirmation is not necessary a harbinger of a secondary correction; however, confirmation should follow soon, or else the odds increase for a secondary reaction to develop. […]

Dow Theory Update for June 17: When Dow Theorist lose it (II). Some bullish reasons, which may be wrong (as with all fundamentals) to give pause to the bears.

posted on: June 17, 2014

Is Zero Hedge giving the “fundamental” answer? Yesterday I took to task those Dow Theorists, who, betraying their trade (pun intended), ignore the technical messages of the market. I wrote that many fundamentalists were scratching their head with unbelief because they consider the stock market irrational. According to them, stocks are expensive, the economy […]

Dow Theory Update for June 16: When Dow Theorists lose it. Russell or how to put aside the Dow Theory and miss a bull market.

posted on: June 16, 2014

Trends remain unchanged Recently, Richard Russell, of the Dow Theory Letters, considered by some as the dean of the Dow Theorists has written: “A primary bear market in the stock market and the US economy began in 2007. The bear market in the US economy is continuing to this day. But the Federal Reserve […]

Dow Theory Update: No news, no time, no post.

posted on: June 13, 2014

Sincerely,Dow Theorist

Dow Theory Update for June 12: GDXJ displays bullishness for gold stocks and gold

posted on: June 12, 2014

Stocks close down US Stocks The SPY, Transports and Industrials closed down. Recent declines are healthy, as the market needed to digest its overbought status. It is too soon, though, to spot a secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend. The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here. The primary trend […]

Dow Theory Update for June 11: No post today. Trends remain unchanged

posted on: June 11, 2014

Sincerely,The Dow Theorist

Dow Theory Update for June 9: Trends unchanged.

posted on: June 9, 2014

No time to write today. Trends (primary and secondary) remain unchanged. Stocks becoming even more overbought. Sincerely, The Dow Theorist

Dow Theory Update for June 6: Industrials, Transports and SPY make higher closing highs

posted on: June 6, 2014

Does momentum investing really work? If you still doubt it, go and read my yesterday’s post. US Stocks The SPY, Transports and Industrials closed up, and all of them made higher confirmed closing highs. The bullish picture for stocks continues. Eventually, trends will change but my Dow Theory readings continue to tell me what they […]

Dow Theory Update for June 5: Fact, fiction and Momentum investing

posted on: June 5, 2014

Debunking anti-trend following myths and how the Dow Theory boosts momentum strategies. AQR Capital Management has recently issued a working paper, which confirms something Dow Theorists, and in general trend followers have never doubted: Momentum (trend following) works. Dorsey Wright’s website has published the whole paper, which you can read here. The conclusions […]