Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for December 5: Indistinct day with bearish bias

posted on: December 5, 2013

Gold and silver close down but don’t pierce last recorded primary bear market lows US stocks The Industrials, Transports and SPY closed down. The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here. The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th and November 13th, for the reasons given hereand here. Today’s […]

Dow Theory Update for December 4: Precious metals take a breather

posted on: December 4, 2013

Stocks weak on bearish volume Let’s get started with our daily commentary on this Dow Theory blog. US stocks The Industrials, Transports and SPY closed down. The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here. The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th and November 13th, for the reasons given […]

Dow Theory Update for December 3: Stocks close down on higher volumen

posted on: December 3, 2013

Precious metals still very close to reconfirming primary bear market Let’s get started with our daily commentary on this Dow Theory blog. US stocks The Industrials, Transports and SPY closed down. The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here. The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th and November […]

Dow Theory Update for December 2: Gold and Silver flirting with a reconfirmation of the primary bear market signal

posted on: December 2, 2013

Are going gold and silver to follow GDX and SIL’s fate? Today is going is going to be a short post. After today’s action (with SLV and GLD falling out of bed), what I see on the charts is that SLV and GLD (the ETF proxies for paper silver and gold) are dangerously close to […]

Dow Theory Update for November 27: Stocks make higher highs confirmed

posted on: November 27, 2013

No change of trend in sight. Tomorrow there will not be any post on this Dow Theory blog. It will be a short day, and I will take it easy. US stocks The Industrials, Transports and SPY closed up. The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here. The primary trend was […]

Dow Theory Update: Day to think about the unrealized profits in SPY

posted on: November 26, 2013

Precious metals weak (as usual) Today’s been a day without any Dow Theory relevant event. However, it is a good day to think about the current long position in SPY, its unrealized profits and, more importantly, the likelihood for these profits to be erased or locked in by subsequent market action. The primary bull market […]

Dow Theory Update for November 25: Stocks and precious metals take a breather

posted on: November 25, 2013

Trader Dan shares bearish outlook for gold Dan Norcini has recently made a conclusive technical analysis of gold. While he is not applying the Dow Theory to gold and silver, I find his analysis flawless, and from a different perspective, confirms the bearishness of the precious metals sectors. Here you can read his November 22 […]

Dow Theory Update for November 22: Stocks make higher highs

posted on: November 22, 2013

Fundamentalist investor Hugh Hendry acknowledges the importance of trends Zero Hedgequotes Hugh Hendry’s latest statement: “[e]verything I believed in I have had to reject. This environment only makes sense through the prism of trends” I am not going to pick on him because it is legitimate to be a value investor. Furthermore, Hendry’s concession attests […]

Face off: Schannep versus “classical” Dow Theory

posted on: November 22, 2013

Part V. Performance comparison under secular bear markets This post was overdue. But time constraints prevented me from writing it before. This is the last post of the saga “Face-off: Schannep versus classical Dow Theory”. As you well know, until now, four posts have analyzed the Schannep’s Dow Theory and Rhea’s (classical) Dow Theory […]

Dow Theory Update: SIL and GDX extend losses following primary bear market signal

posted on: November 21, 2013

Industrials make higher high unconfirmed US stocks The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The Industrials made a higher closing high unconfirmed. The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here. The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th and November 13th, for the reasons given here and here. Today’s […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Assessing the primary bear market signal for gold and silver miners ETFs.

posted on: November 21, 2013

As I wrote yesterday, the Dow Theory has just signaled a primary bear market for SIL and GDX (the silver and gold miners ETFs). Here you have a chart depicting recent price action. The red lines are the secondary reaction lows that once they got violated by both ETFs flashed a primary bear market signal. […]

Dow Theory Update for November 20: Primary bear market for SIL and GDX signaled today

posted on: November 20, 2013

GLD and SLV remain in primary bear market As followers of this Dow Theory blog know most days are irrelevant from a Dow Theory perspective, as neither the primary nor the secondary trend are changed. This fact does not exempt us, though, from monitoring the markets on a daily basis, since we never know which […]