Category: Stock Picking

Before Investing in Stocks, Find Out Who You Are

posted on: September 17, 2026

There Is No Perfect Investment Strategy. Find the One That Fits You Recently, a young man who is starting a family and beginning to build his wealth asked me about the best way, and the secrets, to succeed in the stock market. My answer was probably not what he expected. I did not tell him […]

To Stop or Not to Stop: The Controversy

posted on: August 13, 2026

A Practical Framework For Managing Risk In Your Portfolio A recent thread on X.com about stop losses turned into a small controversy, as this topic tends to do, because it quickly polarizes people. Here is the link to my post: https://x.com/ManuelBlay3/status/2085467290200625336 On one side are those who insist you need a stop and that skipping […]

Some Lessons I Have Learned as a Quantitative Trader

posted on: June 17, 2026

Outperformance Comes in Bursts, Pain Comes in Stretches What follows is based on my own experience as a quantitative trader. Other quants, using different models, different universes, or different constraints, may have reached different conclusions. One of the first lessons I have learned is the importance of understanding the universe one is trading. I run […]

Earnings Beat Valuations: Why the U.S. Still Leads

posted on: June 5, 2026

Do Not Underestimate America’s Earnings Machine Do you remember when, just a few months ago, many experts insisted that U.S. stocks were too expensive, while Europe, and even China, offered the real value? I never bought into that thesis. At the time, I wrote several posts (here, here, here and here) warning that so-called “cheap” […]

The Four Industrial Revolutions: Why AI Changes Market Timing Forever

posted on: March 10, 2026

AI makes market timing more necessary than ever. By George Morton, Ph.D The stock market has always reflected the underlying economy, but not all economic transitions are created equal. Over the past 250 years, four industrial revolutions have reshaped how value is created, who captures it, and how fast leadership changes hands. For investors, the […]

When Market Timing Meets Quant Research: The Results Speak for Themselves

posted on: October 17, 2025

How world-class quant research and timing filters slash drawdowns and boost returns. What happens when you combine a strong stock-picking strategy with first-class trend following? Something remarkable happens: returns surge, drawdowns shrink, and consistency improves dramatically. That’s exactly what the two charts below reveal. This article was originally a brief social media post, but the […]