Category: Uncategorized

The Emperor’s Clothes Again

In our latest conversation, Andrew and I picked up right where we left off,  back in April, when I correctly called the market bottom. In this new interview, I’m not calling a top, since I still see room for the stock market to move higher. However, I’m now a more cautious bull: the rally since […]

Unlocking the Power of Market Timing

Featured in Technically Speaking (August 2025, CMT Association) and spotlighted by Investopedia, this article delivers hard evidence for smarter investing, proving how disciplined timing can cut drawdowns and drive lasting success. “The Power of Market Timing” is an essential read for anyone serious about achieving lasting financial success. Featured in the August 2025 issue of […]

Breaking: New Signal Triggered on 3/4/25 – Exclusive Update on Trends Available in Subscribers’ Portal

March 4th, 2025, marked a pivotal day for the stock market, prompting strategic adjustments to my two real-money portfolios. On that day, we notified our subscribers via email and Discord. You can also access the email in the  Subscribers’ Portal If you are not a Subscriber yet, you can sign up HERE. Sincerely, Manuel Blay […]

While the Bear market in bonds persists, a secondary reaction was signaled on January 30, 2025

Overview: It looks like all markets are sensing that a new wave of liquidity is about to be released. Gold, stocks, and crypto are edging higher. Notably, even bonds, which have been mired in a bear market, have experienced a rally. General Remarks: In this post, I extensively elaborate on the rationale behind employing two […]

Gold and Silver at a Crossroads: Bull Continuation or Bear Market Ahead?

Breaking Down Gold and Silver: A Critical Moment Overview: In a similar fashion to the gold and Silver miner’s ETFs, gold and silver reached a make-or-break moment on 20/19/24. The setup for a potential bear market has been completed, and the line on the sand has been drawn. In this post, we examine the key […]

Precious Metals Bull Market Confirmed on 9/24/24: Gold and Silver Miners Soar

Chinese Stimulus Sparks Melt-Up in Gold, Silver, and Mining ETFs. Overview: The markets were sniffing the Chinese stimulus days before it was official. All assets are in a melt-up mode; gold led the parade, and finally, silver caught up.  The bull market in precious metals has been confirmed. Once again, the principle of confirmation saved […]

test

fffff

Dow Theory Analysis Featured in ‘Markets Insider’: Implications of Recent SELL Signal

I thank Matthew Fox for quoting my Dow Theory analysis in “Markets Insider”. As stated in Matthew’s article, on 10/23/2023, the Dow Industrials broke down below its 10/3/23 closing lows, triggering a SELL signal. The table below shows the most relevant price action that led to the 10/23/23 Sell signal. Historical data from 1953 reveals […]

Dow Theory Update for November 10: Secondary (bullish) reaction for SIL & GDX signaled on 11/10/22

Dow Theory Update for February 4: Primary bear market signaled on January 27, 2022 for precious metals ETFs

Gold and Silver remain in a primary bull market when appraised with “shorter-term” Dow Theory.     GOLD AND SILVER   In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions.   A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by […]

Dow Theory Update for November 17: Secondary reaction against the primary bear market and setup for a potential Bull market signal in US Bonds

  Primary and secondary trends for precious metals, their metals, and US stocks remain bullish.   I am writing before the close. So please do your own homework.    US INTEREST RATES   General Remarks:   In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Assessing the Dow Theory’s performance when applied to precious metals and their miners: Whole study

  I have merged the following three posts into one, which has become a “page” (see the heading of this blog): http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2021/06/dow-theory-special-issue-assessing-dow.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2021/06/dow-theory-special-issue-assessing-dow_15.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2021/06/dow-theory-special-issue-assessing-dow_24.html  If you want to become convinced about the superiority of the Dow Theory over other trend following strategies and check by yourself the outperformance of the trades that were signaled “live” […]