Category: Daily update

Dow Theory Update for September 19: Halmiton’s market calls (1900-1929) revisited

posted on: September 19, 2022

Does the classical Dow Theory yield positive risk-adjusted returns? The answer is: YES. The article linked below penned by William Goetzmann proves that the market calls made by Dow Theorist Hamilton from 1902 to 1929 beat buy and hold on a risk-adjusted basis. https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download;jsessionid=9D2DF4DC55D81DA9EEFADA02B019F9F2?doi=10.1.1.199.1866&rep=rep1&type=pdf The edited chart below extracted from the linked […]

Dow Theory Update for September 13: U.S. bonds flirting with a primary bear market signal

posted on: September 13, 2022

But not there yet! General Remarks: In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it here IEF is the iShares 7-10 years Treasury bond ETF. More about it here. […]

Dow Theory Update for September 5: Primary bear market for SLV and GLD reconfirmed on 9/1/22

posted on: September 5, 2022

GOLD AND SILVER A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. As I explained here, the primary and secondary trend was signaled as bearish on 6/30/22. Following the 7/20/22 closing lows for GLD and 7/25/2022 for SLV, a secondary (bullish) reaction against the primary bear market developed. After […]

Dow Theory Update for September 3: Primary bear market for SIL and GDX reconfirmed on 8/30/22

posted on: September 3, 2022

Primary bear market for GLD and SLV reconfirmed on 9/1/22. Very soon, I will pen a new post concerning GLD and SLV. The overall picture for precious metals is bearish. I don’t want to give names, but when I signaled a primary bear market, I was criticized. The perma-bulls had an arsenal of reasons for […]

Dow Theory Update for August 26: U.S. bonds under a secondary reaction against the primary bull market

posted on: August 26, 2022

I am posting before the close. So things might change after the close. So readers beware. US INTEREST RATES General Remarks: In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about […]

Dow Theory Update for August 25: Setup for a primary bull market completed for GDX and SIL (precious metals miners’ ETFs)

posted on: August 25, 2022

I am posting before the close so things might change. Readers beware. GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. As I explained here, the primary trend was signaled as bearish on 6/23/22. Following the 7/25/22 closing lows for both GDX and for […]

Dow Theory Update for August 24: Setup for a primary bull market completed for precious metals

posted on: August 24, 2022

Gold and Silver miners ETFs have also set up from a potential primary bull market signal GOLD AND SILVER A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. As I explained here, the primary and secondary trend was signaled as bearish on 6/30/22. Following the 7/20/22 closing […]

Dow Theory Update for August 15: Update on the trend for U.S. bonds on Alessio Rastani YouTube channel

posted on: August 15, 2022

Famed Youtuber and successful trader Alessio Rastani and I have been discussing the current trend for U.S. bonds and its implications for the economy. Click on the link below to see the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ey0SPpb6BXk&t=2s And to see our past interview on gold: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pG7j0aXlXx8&t=3s I highly recommend Alessio’s channel. It is loaded with great, enjoyable, and […]

Dow Theory Update for August 9: How to follow me on LinkedIn

posted on: August 9, 2022

Interview in Alessio Rastani’s Youtube channel. As usual, time is in short supply. So, while I keep this blog updated when trends change, I cannot post as often as I would like if I had more time available. However, on LinkedIn, I post almost every day. Short posts, not the size you […]

Dow Theory Update for July 23: Primary bull market in U.S. bonds signaled on 7/22/22

posted on: July 23, 2022

The primary & secondary trend for precious metals remains bearish US INTEREST RATES General Remarks: In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it here IEF is […]

Dow Theory Update for July 15: Setup for a potential primary bull market in U.S. bonds completed on 7/8/2022

posted on: July 15, 2022

All trends for precious metals & their ETF miners remain solidly bearish I am writing before today’s close, so things might change. Readers beware. US INTEREST RATES General Remarks: In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares […]

Dow Theory Update for July 6: U.S. bonds are in a secondary reaction against the bear market

posted on: July 6, 2022

Are bonds signaling an impending recession? I am writing before today’s close, so things might change. Readers beware. US INTEREST RATES General Remarks: In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond […]