Category: Daily update

To Stop or Not to Stop: The Controversy

posted on: August 13, 2026

A Practical Framework For Managing Risk In Your Portfolio A recent thread on X.com about stop losses turned into a small controversy, as this topic tends to do, because it quickly polarizes people. Here is the link to my post: https://x.com/ManuelBlay3/status/2085467290200625336 On one side are those who insist you need a stop and that skipping […]

Dow Theory Update for July 31: Primary Bear Market in U.S. Bonds Reaffirmed on 7/29/2026

posted on: July 31, 2026

The bear market in bonds continues General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares 20 plus Years Treasury Bond ETF. More about it here. IEF is the iShares 7 to 10 Years Treasury Bond ETF. More about it […]

The Closest Thing to a Free Lunch in Investing

posted on: July 13, 2026

The Magic of Combining Strategies One of the advantages of quantitative investing is that diversification can be engineered rather than left to chance. I run several independent quant strategies. Within each one, I impose a strict rule: no single sector may account for more than 30% of the portfolio. That limit prevents any individual strategy […]

Some Lessons I Have Learned as a Quantitative Trader

posted on: June 17, 2026

Outperformance Comes in Bursts, Pain Comes in Stretches What follows is based on my own experience as a quantitative trader. Other quants, using different models, different universes, or different constraints, may have reached different conclusions. One of the first lessons I have learned is the importance of understanding the universe one is trading. I run […]

Gold and Silver miners ETFs Turn Bearish on 6/9/2026

posted on: June 10, 2026

Overview: In my June 1st Letter to subscribers, I noted that the two-year Treasury yield was breaking higher and that this would likely exert a negative influence on liquidity. One of the main casualties appears to have been the gold and silver miners. On 6/9/26, a new bear market was signaled in both GDX and […]

After a Long Ride, Gold and Silver Turn Bearish on 6/9/2026

posted on: June 9, 2026

Overview: In my June 1st Letter to subscribers, I noted that the two-year Treasury yield was breaking higher and that this would likely exert a negative influence on liquidity. One of the main casualties appears to have been gold and silver. Today, 6/9/26, a new bear market was signaled in both metals. Gold and silver […]

Earnings Beat Valuations: Why the U.S. Still Leads

posted on: June 5, 2026

Do Not Underestimate America’s Earnings Machine Do you remember when, just a few months ago, many experts insisted that U.S. stocks were too expensive, while Europe, and even China, offered the real value? I never bought into that thesis. At the time, I wrote several posts (here, here, here and here) warning that so-called “cheap” […]

Dow Theory Signals Bear Market in Bonds on 5/19/2026

posted on: May 20, 2026

Once again, the principle of confirmation gave a warning. Overview: High crude oil prices are finally exerting inflationary pressure. With year-over-year CPI at 3.8%, bond yields have finally succumbed, and a new bear market in bonds, implying higher interest rates, was signaled on 5/19/26 As higher interest rates seem to be fueled by rising inflation […]

Warning: Setup for potential primary bear market signal for Gold and Silver completed on 3/31/26

posted on: April 7, 2026

Key price levels to watch are revealed in this post Overview: GLD and SLV underwent a secondary reaction against the primary bull market. The recent price action completed the setup for a potential bear market signal on 3/31/26. Please mind the word “potential”, which implies that the primary bull market remains in force. General Remarks: […]

Critical Juncture for Gold and Silver miners: Bear Market Signal One Step Away

posted on: March 27, 2026

In the meantime, the primary trend is still bullish, but it could change soon Overview: GDX and SIL underwent a secondary reaction against the primary bull market. The recent price action completed the setup for a potential bear market signal on 3/25/26. Please mind the word “potential”, which implies that the primary bull market remains […]

Strategic Market Timing for Luxury Superyacht Construction

posted on: January 16, 2026

Super Yacht Builders’ Guide to Counter-Cyclical Growth By George Morton, PhD, January 2026 Executive Summary Dow Theorist Hamilton, in his 1922 book The Stock Market Barometer: A Study of Its Forecast Value, described the averages as a reliable barometer for forecasting trends in business activity (including industrial aspects). He emphasized its predictive power for economic/industrial […]

Bull market for the gold and silver miners ETFs (GDX & SIL) confirmed on 12/11/25

posted on: December 13, 2025

The melt up for precious metals continues Overview: What was just a secondary reaction against the bullish trend turned out to be nothing, as higher confirmed highs by SIL and GDX have reaffirmed the primary bull market. The trend in gold and silver is so powerful that their pullbacks didn’t even count as secondary reactions. […]