Category: Daily update

Bull market for the gold and silver miners ETFs (GDX & SIL) signaled on 3/13/25

Overview: While most stocks are amid a severe correction, the gold and silver miners’ ETFs have shown remarkable strength, which, in my opinion, is proof that precious metals are poised for a big and sustainable run-up. The trend for gold and silver is also bullish. General Remarks: In this post, I extensively elaborate on the […]

Rory Guillen of Gillenmarkets.com, a long-time subscriber to our service, has just published a highly insightful article on the most recent Dow Theory for the 21st Century (DT21C) signal. You can read it HERE. The piece offers a clear and practical explanation of how to apply the DT21C, along with its strong track record of […]

Crypto at a Crossroads: Bitcoin’s Bear Trend, MicroStrategy’s Risk, and What Comes Next

Is the bearish trend for Bitcoin nearing its end? Does MicroStrategy’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation pose a hidden risk? And what is the broader crypto space really trying to tell us right now? Had an awesome time joining Alessio Rastani once again—this time diving deep into the world of Bitcoin, crypto trends, and what might be […]

Stock Market Outlook: Key Insights from My Chat with Alessio Rastani

Had a great time joining Alessio Rastani on his YouTube channel! We covered some crucial topics, including the most immediate price action for the stock market and what to watch for in the second half of the year. I also shared key insights on what margin debt is signaling right now—a factor that could have […]

Assessing the Bullish Setup for GDX and SIL in a Bearish Stock Environment

The setup for a potential primary bull market in SIL and GDX was completed on 2/27/25 Overview: Despite declining stock prices, gold and silver miners’ ETFs (GDX and SIL) demonstrate resilience and completed on 2/27/25 the setup for a potential primary bull market signal. As of this writing, neither GDX nor SIL haven broken up […]

The Principle of Confirmation can save your skin (III). Example 3: Bitcoin breakup turned into a bull trap

 Applying the Confirmation Principle to Cryptocurrencies Two earlier analyses (HERE and HERE)  demonstrated the effectiveness of the confirmation principle when applied to U.S. stock indexes and bonds, highlighting its value in avoiding trading fakeouts. This principle suggests that a new high or low unconfirmed by another asset or index has a high probability of failing. […]

Secondary reaction for the gold and silver miners ETFs signaled on January 30, 2025

The primary trend remains bearish Overview: All markets are sensing that a new wave of liquidity will be released. Gold, stocks, bonds, and crypto are edging higher. The gold and silver miners’ ETFs, mired in a bear market, have experienced a rally. However, this rally is not enough to change the trend from bearish to […]

While the Bear market in bonds persists, a secondary reaction was signaled on January 30, 2025

Overview: It looks like all markets are sensing that a new wave of liquidity is about to be released. Gold, stocks, and crypto are edging higher. Notably, even bonds, which have been mired in a bear market, have experienced a rally. General Remarks: In this post, I extensively elaborate on the rationale behind employing two […]

Beating the S&P 500: Why Your Stock Picks Might Be Falling Short

The 40-Day Sweet Spot: Rethinking Your Stock Holding Period Most S&P500 constituents fail to outperform the Index in the long run. The evidence provided by Kurtis Hemmerling in his LinkedIn post is compelling and highlights this challenge for individual stock pickers. So, if you buy stocks for the long haul, the odds are greatly stacked […]

Dow Theory signal: Bear Market for Gold and Silver Miners triggered on 12/18/24

Analyzing the Impact of Powell’s Hawkish Stance on GDX and SIL Overview: All markets, gold and silver miners included, reacted negatively to Powell’s more hawkish stance, as investors had anticipated more substantial and frequent rate cuts. The big drop GDX and SIL experienced on 12/18/24 triggered a primary bear market signal. The precious metals themselves, […]

Dow Theory Signals Bear Market in Bonds on 12/18/24

Powell’s Hawkish Tone Triggers Major Shifts in TLT and IEF Overview: All markets, notably bonds, reacted negatively to Powell’s more hawkish stance, as investors had anticipated more substantial and frequent rate cuts. The big drop TLT and IEF experienced on 12/18/24 triggered a primary bear market signal. Later today, or tomorrow, I will write about […]

Bonds at crossroads: Set up for a potential bear market signal for TLT and IEF completed on 11/27/24

Dissecting the most recent price action for TLT & IEF. Key price levels to monitor Overview: the most recent rally within an extended secondary (bearish) reaction has set up TLT and IEF for a potential primary bear market signal. The trend remains bullish to this day, but if the key prices I show in this […]