Category: Dow Theory

The Principle of Confirmation Can Save Your Skin (IV) / Example 4: Two Silver Breakdowns That Turned into Bear Traps

posted on: October 25, 2025

Applying the Confirmation Principle to precious metals In three earlier analyses (HERE, HERE, and HERE), I showed how the Principle of Confirmation works across U.S. stock indexes, bonds, and crypto. In each case, the principle proved invaluable in filtering out false moves. The idea is simple but powerful: a breakout or breakdown that is not […]

When Market Timing Meets Quant Research: The Results Speak for Themselves

posted on: October 17, 2025

How world-class quant research and timing filters slash drawdowns and boost returns. What happens when you combine a strong stock-picking strategy with first-class trend following? Something remarkable happens: returns surge, drawdowns shrink, and consistency improves dramatically. That’s exactly what the two charts below reveal. This article was originally a brief social media post, but the […]

Why Bitcoin’s Bull Market Isn’t Over Yet

posted on: October 7, 2025

On October 3rd, I had the pleasure of joining Maurizio Pedrazzoli Grazioli’s podcast for the second time. We picked up right where we left off from our previous conversation—when we called the bottom of Bitcoin on April 8th—and once again, we explored some bold bullish scenarios that, at the time, were far from obvious. Fast […]

When fundamental Indicators Break Down, Price Still Leads

posted on: July 24, 2025

The LEI and yield curve missed the mark. Price action and margin debt told the real story, and we listened. For decades, investors leaned heavily on two stalwart indicators: the yield curve and the Leading Economic Index (LEI). These tools had an almost mythic reputation for signaling recessions and bear markets. However, as Jim Paulsen […]

Two new interviews with Alessio Rastani on Youtube

posted on: July 7, 2025

Once again, I was invited by Alessio Rastani to join him in two new videos. Since I was in my 80% work, 20% vacation mission across Europe, I was not fully equipped, so we had to do an “unplugged” performance. No fancy mic, nor headphones or hi-end speakers on my end. Just my reliable laptop, […]

The Real Problem with Buy & Hold—and What to Do About It

posted on: June 14, 2025

Three Smarter Ways to Cut Drawdowns Without Killing Performance The core issue with buy-and-hold investing is simple: drawdowns. Big ones. They may be inevitable, but that doesn’t make them any less damaging—both financially and psychologically. To address this, many investors turn to buffered ETFs, hedging with puts, or going short. But there’s a catch: these […]

Bull market for the gold and silver miners ETFs (GDX & SIL) signaled on 6/2/25

posted on: June 10, 2025

Overview: The precious metals landscape has turned very bullish. Gold, silver, platinum, and even base metals like copper are trending strongly upward. GDX and SIL are no exception to this new trend. General Remarks: In this post, I provide an in-depth explanation of the rationale behind employing two alternative definitions to evaluate secondary reactions. SIL […]

Critical Juncture for Bonds: Bear Market Signal One Step Away

posted on: May 31, 2025

Set up for a potential bear market signal for TLT and IEF completed on 5/30/25 Overview: the most recent rally within an extended secondary (bearish) reaction has set up TLT and IEF for a potential primary bear market signal. The trend remains bullish to this day, but if the key prices I show in this […]

Dow Theory signal: Bear Market for Gold and Silver Miners triggered on 5/14/25

posted on: May 15, 2025

Overview: The easing of geopolitical tensions, a preliminary truce in the tariff wars, and some forced liquidations have pushed GDX and SIL into a new bear market. In contrast, gold and silver have remained more resilient and continue to trade within a primary bull market. General Remarks: In this post, I extensively elaborate on the […]

Breadth Thrust on April 24th 2025 increases the odds that the bottom is behind us

posted on: April 24, 2025

I reproduce a post on LinkedIn with some additions that I think is relevant to our readers. On April 24, 2025, a Zweig Breadth Thrust signal emerged, a rare and historically bullish indicator for the stock market. Skeptical of social media claims, I verified the signal using TradeStation, my trusted trading software, which confirmed the […]

Markets on the Edge: A Deep Dive with Andrew Horowitz & Manuel Blay

posted on: April 14, 2025

In our latest conversation, Andrew and I unpacked the recent market rollercoaster—driven by self-inflicted uncertainty and erratic swings. I shared insights drawn from Dow Theory, the recent S&P 500 decline, and what truly defines a valid rally. We also delved into the concept of capitulation, assessed the impact of today’s economic backdrop, and discussed how […]

Dow Theory Signals a New Bull Market in Bonds — Is It Predicting Lower Inflation or a Recession?

posted on: April 9, 2025

Overview: On April 4, 2025, following a strong rally driven by lower interest rates, the Dow Theory signaled the start of a new bull market in U.S. bonds. The key question now: What is the market anticipating? Is it pricing in lower inflation amid a soft landing—or something more concerning, like a recession-induced drop in […]