Category: Dow Theory

Dow Theory Signals a New Bull Market in Bonds — Is It Predicting Lower Inflation or a Recession?

Overview: On April 4, 2025, following a strong rally driven by lower interest rates, the Dow Theory signaled the start of a new bull market in U.S. bonds. The key question now: What is the market anticipating? Is it pricing in lower inflation amid a soft landing—or something more concerning, like a recession-induced drop in […]

Setup for a potential primary bull market signal on TLT and IEF completed on 3/26/25

Overview: It appears that all markets are anticipating a new wave of liquidity is about to be released. Gold, stocks, and crypto are edging higher. Notably, even bonds, which have been mired in a bear market, have experienced a rally. To be clear: The “setup” is for a potential primary bull market signal. It is […]

Bull market for the gold and silver miners ETFs (GDX & SIL) signaled on 3/13/25

Overview: While most stocks are amid a severe correction, the gold and silver miners’ ETFs have shown remarkable strength, which, in my opinion, is proof that precious metals are poised for a big and sustainable run-up. The trend for gold and silver is also bullish. General Remarks: In this post, I extensively elaborate on the […]

Rory Guillen of Gillenmarkets.com, a long-time subscriber to our service, has just published a highly insightful article on the most recent Dow Theory for the 21st Century (DT21C) signal. You can read it HERE. The piece offers a clear and practical explanation of how to apply the DT21C, along with its strong track record of […]

Stock Market Outlook: Key Insights from My Chat with Alessio Rastani

Had a great time joining Alessio Rastani on his YouTube channel! We covered some crucial topics, including the most immediate price action for the stock market and what to watch for in the second half of the year. I also shared key insights on what margin debt is signaling right now—a factor that could have […]

Assessing the Bullish Setup for GDX and SIL in a Bearish Stock Environment

The setup for a potential primary bull market in SIL and GDX was completed on 2/27/25 Overview: Despite declining stock prices, gold and silver miners’ ETFs (GDX and SIL) demonstrate resilience and completed on 2/27/25 the setup for a potential primary bull market signal. As of this writing, neither GDX nor SIL haven broken up […]

The Principle of Confirmation can save your skin (III). Example 3: Bitcoin breakup turned into a bull trap

 Applying the Confirmation Principle to Cryptocurrencies Two earlier analyses (HERE and HERE)  demonstrated the effectiveness of the confirmation principle when applied to U.S. stock indexes and bonds, highlighting its value in avoiding trading fakeouts. This principle suggests that a new high or low unconfirmed by another asset or index has a high probability of failing. […]

Secondary reaction for the gold and silver miners ETFs signaled on January 30, 2025

The primary trend remains bearish Overview: All markets are sensing that a new wave of liquidity will be released. Gold, stocks, bonds, and crypto are edging higher. The gold and silver miners’ ETFs, mired in a bear market, have experienced a rally. However, this rally is not enough to change the trend from bearish to […]

While the Bear market in bonds persists, a secondary reaction was signaled on January 30, 2025

Overview: It looks like all markets are sensing that a new wave of liquidity is about to be released. Gold, stocks, and crypto are edging higher. Notably, even bonds, which have been mired in a bear market, have experienced a rally. General Remarks: In this post, I extensively elaborate on the rationale behind employing two […]

Dow Theory signal: Bear Market for Gold and Silver Miners triggered on 12/18/24

Analyzing the Impact of Powell’s Hawkish Stance on GDX and SIL Overview: All markets, gold and silver miners included, reacted negatively to Powell’s more hawkish stance, as investors had anticipated more substantial and frequent rate cuts. The big drop GDX and SIL experienced on 12/18/24 triggered a primary bear market signal. The precious metals themselves, […]

When Trends Speak Louder Than Data: Why Trend Following Wins Against Macro Investing

AI’s Verdict: Trend Following Trumps Macro in the Investment Arena I often receive emails highlighting macroeconomic data that supposedly contradicts or challenges the signals provided by price action—or trend-following—in markets like stocks, crypto, bonds, etc. These messages can give the impression that trend-following alone isn’t enough to keep us on the right side of the […]

Gold and Silver at a Crossroads: Bull Continuation or Bear Market Ahead?

Breaking Down Gold and Silver: A Critical Moment Overview: In a similar fashion to the gold and Silver miner’s ETFs, gold and silver reached a make-or-break moment on 20/19/24. The setup for a potential bear market has been completed, and the line on the sand has been drawn. In this post, we examine the key […]