Critical Stock Market Update: The classical Dow Theory signaled a bull market on 2/8/24
posted on: February 13, 2024
Reminder: The Dow Theory for the 21st Century provides even more precise timing for the stock market I will explain the latest “classical” Dow Theory buy signal in this post. I must state that I don’t trade this kind of Dow Theory, despite its good record of outperformance and drawdown reduction vs. Buy and Hold. […]
Navigating the new normal: Why Small-Cap Stocks Lag Behind the S&P 500
posted on: January 24, 2024
The Small-Cap Conundrum: Is the Glory Days of Outperformance Over? Small-Cap Stocks Lag Behind S&P 500. Over the past five years, small-cap stocks have consistently underperformed the S&P 500, as illustrated in the chart below. While occasional bursts of outperformance may occur, I’m skeptical that small caps will revert to their historical pattern of consistently […]
How a Falling ERP Isn’t the Bearish Sign You Thought It Was
posted on: January 23, 2024
Dispelling another investment myth Is a falling Equity/Risk Premium (ERP) bearish for stocks? No, it isn’t. Jay Kaeppel (HERE) debunks another investment fallacy by showing that a falling ERP does not influence the stock market. So, a relatively low yield of stocks vs. bonds has zero predictive power of future performance. Actually, as shown in […]
Perhaps it is, but there aren’t many alternatives left I’m not a staunch supporter of fundamentals, but if there’s one I truly endorse, it’s economic freedom as a predictor of future prosperity. The freer the market, the more prosperous the nation, and its stock market mirrors this. Therefore, it doesn’t make sense to me to […]
Not everything touted as Dow Theory is the real thing. No technical analysis system is more abused than the Dow Theory. Some individuals peddle their eccentric notions under its banner to profit from its respectable track record, misrepresenting them as Dow Theory to make a catchy headline. A recent case involves the confusion between the […]
Bull or Bear? Unveiling the Current State of Silver with YouTuber Alessio Rastani
posted on: November 13, 2023
In our latest episode, Alessio Rastani and I discuss the current state of the silver market. After rallying from its October lows, silver has experienced a recent pullback, prompting us to analyze whether the silver chart is currently exhibiting bullish or bearish signals. To watch the video, click on the image below.
Decoding Bitcoin’s Path: A Rule of 7 Exploration with Alessio Rastani
posted on: November 9, 2023
Join me in a candid Bitcoin discussion with Alessio Rastani. We explore future price objectives using the Rule of 7 and delve into when market corrections might occur. Check out the full interview by clicking the image below for insightful analysis.
Exploring Market Headwinds and Future Scenarios with Alessio Rastani
posted on: November 6, 2023
Navigating Stock Market Challenges: Insights from a Recent YouTube Interview I want to thank Alessio Rastani for having me on his YouTube channel. It was a fantastic experience talking about the current state of the stock market. We covered the two significant challenges that could potentially keep the S&P500 from hitting all-time highs in the […]
Dow Theory Analysis Featured in ‘Markets Insider’: Implications of Recent SELL Signal
posted on: October 23, 2023
I thank Matthew Fox for quoting my Dow Theory analysis in “Markets Insider”. As stated in Matthew’s article, on 10/23/2023, the Dow Industrials broke down below its 10/3/23 closing lows, triggering a SELL signal. The table below shows the most relevant price action that led to the 10/23/23 Sell signal. Historical data from 1953 reveals […]
Dow Theory Update for September 21: Primary bear market in U.S. bonds reaffirmed on 9/21/23
posted on: September 21, 2023
The bear market in bonds continues… General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it here IEF is the iShares 7-10 years Treasury bond ETF. More about it here. Thus, […]
Dow Theory Update for September 19: No changes in trends but something is going on with gold
posted on: September 19, 2023
All the last updates I produced for gold/silver, GDX/SIL, and TLT/IEF and the U.S. stock market remain unchanged. Markets are like a coiled spring, and the final breakout will likely carry out significant follow-through. However, while markets remain range-bound, something is going on with physical gold. I recently found a Bloomberg article indicating that Shanghai’s […]
Dow Theory Update for July 20: Heretical Interpetations of the Dow Theory (II)
posted on: July 21, 2023
Not everything promoted as “Dow Theory” is the correct Dow Theory In four past posts (here, here, here, and here I debunked what I believe are incorrect and underperforming interpretations of the Dow Theory. The Dow Industrials’ newer highs have sparked claims from various “Dow Theory experts” that a new Bull market has emerged, which […]
