Unlocking the Power of Trend Following and Relative Strength: A Century of Outperformance
posted on: June 11, 2024
Reducing Drawdowns and Maximizing Returns Trend following and relative strength works. The latest research by Gary Antonacci and Carlo Zarattini, delving into almost 100 years of data, proves conclusively that when done correctly, market timing results in significant outperformance and, more importantly, drawdown reduction. Most investors get blinded by the “outperformance” and forget that the […]
Spotting Recessions and Bear markets: Schannep Recession Indicator vs. Sahm rule
posted on: May 30, 2024
Which one is even better? Spoiler alert: Schannep’s The “Sahm Rule” is a well-known recession indicator created by Claudia Sahm, an economist who worked at the Federal Reserve. This rule identifies the early stages of a recession when the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate rises by half a percentage point or more […]
Back to “divergent” interpretations of the Dow Theory
posted on: May 27, 2024
Setting Dow Theory concepts straight amidst so much “fake” Dow Theory. Recent Transport weakness relative to the Dow Industrials prompted many “experts” to proclaim that this is a bear market signal. Let’s clarify the concepts. First, divergence and lack of confirmation, while similar, are not the same and have different implications. Divergence entails one […]
Alessio Rastani Features TheDowTheory.com: Update on the technical landscape for Bitcoin and Ethereum
posted on: April 29, 2024
Alessio Rastani has a knack for making excellent and content-rich videos. As a follower of Alessio’s work for many years, I can attest that he tends to be on the right side of the markets most of the time. In his latest video, he delves into the current technical landscape of Bitcoin and Ethereum. I’m […]
Exploring Effective Investment Strategies with Giacomo Mondonico on Hustle Hub
posted on: March 20, 2024
Learn How the Dow Theory Can Elevate Your Investment Game Being featured on Giacomo Mondonico’s YouTube channel, Hustle Hub, was an absolute pleasure. In our first interview episode, we explored various investment strategies, carefully assessing their effectiveness. Through our analysis, we found that the Dow Theory stands out as a reliable approach for understanding market […]
Critical Stock Market Update: The classical Dow Theory signaled a bull market on 2/8/24
posted on: February 13, 2024
Reminder: The Dow Theory for the 21st Century provides even more precise timing for the stock market I will explain the latest “classical” Dow Theory buy signal in this post. I must state that I don’t trade this kind of Dow Theory, despite its good record of outperformance and drawdown reduction vs. Buy and Hold. […]
Navigating the new normal: Why Small-Cap Stocks Lag Behind the S&P 500
posted on: January 24, 2024
The Small-Cap Conundrum: Is the Glory Days of Outperformance Over? Small-Cap Stocks Lag Behind S&P 500. Over the past five years, small-cap stocks have consistently underperformed the S&P 500, as illustrated in the chart below. While occasional bursts of outperformance may occur, I’m skeptical that small caps will revert to their historical pattern of consistently […]
How a Falling ERP Isn’t the Bearish Sign You Thought It Was
posted on: January 23, 2024
Dispelling another investment myth Is a falling Equity/Risk Premium (ERP) bearish for stocks? No, it isn’t. Jay Kaeppel (HERE) debunks another investment fallacy by showing that a falling ERP does not influence the stock market. So, a relatively low yield of stocks vs. bonds has zero predictive power of future performance. Actually, as shown in […]
Perhaps it is, but there aren’t many alternatives left I’m not a staunch supporter of fundamentals, but if there’s one I truly endorse, it’s economic freedom as a predictor of future prosperity. The freer the market, the more prosperous the nation, and its stock market mirrors this. Therefore, it doesn’t make sense to me to […]
Not everything touted as Dow Theory is the real thing. No technical analysis system is more abused than the Dow Theory. Some individuals peddle their eccentric notions under its banner to profit from its respectable track record, misrepresenting them as Dow Theory to make a catchy headline. A recent case involves the confusion between the […]
Bull or Bear? Unveiling the Current State of Silver with YouTuber Alessio Rastani
posted on: November 13, 2023
In our latest episode, Alessio Rastani and I discuss the current state of the silver market. After rallying from its October lows, silver has experienced a recent pullback, prompting us to analyze whether the silver chart is currently exhibiting bullish or bearish signals. To watch the video, click on the image below.
Decoding Bitcoin’s Path: A Rule of 7 Exploration with Alessio Rastani
posted on: November 9, 2023
Join me in a candid Bitcoin discussion with Alessio Rastani. We explore future price objectives using the Rule of 7 and delve into when market corrections might occur. Check out the full interview by clicking the image below for insightful analysis.
