Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for March 17 (after the close): Primary bull market signaled for SLV and GLD.

posted on: March 17, 2016

No time to write now. Today SLV has bettered its 2/12/2016 closing high, and has, thus, confirmed GLD. A primary bull market for both GLD and SLV has been signaled at today’s close. More about the signal, if time permits, tomorrow. Sincerely, The Dow Theorist

Dow Theory Update for March 17: Trends unchanged

posted on: March 17, 2016

No setup for primary bull market in stocks yet US STOCKS The primary trend is bearish, as explained here: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-14.html Here is an additional post concerning the likely decline to follow primary bear markets signals: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-special-issue-additional.html The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against primary bearish trend) as explained here. No setup for a primary […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (IV)

posted on: March 10, 2016

Will future secular bear markets allow the Dow Theory to outperform buy and hold? Will future secular bear markets be so obliging to the Dow Theory as past ones? The preceding two posts of this saga (here and here) dealt with the Dow Theory performance under secular bear markets. I concluded that I thought that […]

Dow Theory Update for March 3: Primary bull market for SIL and GDX signaled today

posted on: March 3, 2016

Secondary reaction in US stocks continues unabated US STOCKS The primary trend is bearish, as explained here: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-14.html Here is an additional post concerning the likely decline to follow primary bear markets signals: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-special-issue-additional.html The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against primary bearish trend) as explained here. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2016/02/dow-theory-update-for-february23.html No setup for a primary bull […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Why drawdowns matter

posted on: March 1, 2016

And why most investors should avoid them Some weeks ago, one reader of this Dow Theory blog alleged that the focus on “timing” the market, and hence avoiding drawdowns was not a good idea, since in the long run US stocks (or at least US stock indices) end up being winners. Furthermore, no dividends are […]

Dow Theory Update for February 23: Secondary (bullish) reaction against primary bear market signaled on February 22

posted on: February 23, 2016

Trends for precious metals unchanged US STOCKS The Transports has been rallying for 23 trading days since its Jan 20 closing lows. The INDU and SP500 have been rallying for 7 trading days and 11 calendar days. Hence, 3 indices have rallied more than 10 calendar days (it suffices just two). And the average […]

Dow Theory Update for February 18: Gold and Silver set up for primary bull market signal on February 16th

posted on: February 18, 2016

No secondary reaction for stocks yet US STOCKS The primary and secondary trend is bearish, as explained here: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-14.html Here is an additional post concerning the likely decline to follow primary bear markets signals: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-special-issue-additional.html On February 11, 2016 the Industrials and SPY violated their January 20 closing lows. The subsequent rally has not hitherto […]

Dow Theory Update for February 12: Silver and Gold miners ETFs under secondary (bullish) reaction against primary bear market

posted on: February 12, 2016

No secondary (bullish) reaction for stocks against primary bear market yet US STOCKS The primary and secondary trend is bearish, as explained here: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-14.html Here is an additional post concerning the likely decline to follow primary bear markets signals: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-special-issue-additional.html On February 11, 2016 the Industrials and SPY violated their January 20 closing lows. So […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (III)

posted on: February 8, 2016

Additional remarks concerning performance under secular bear markets As a consequence of my second post concerning the Dow Theory stress-test, Alpha Dow posted this comment: Hi there. First of all — I love the site. I’m an 18yr disciple of Dow Theory and a subscriber to Schannep and a practitioner myself. There is a dearth […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (II)

posted on: February 2, 2016

Performance under secular bear markets On December 7th, 2015 I started what is going to be a new “saga”. Its aim is to put the Dow Theory under a “stress-test”. We will try to think out of the box and imagine adverse scenarios which hitherto have not occurred yet. How would the Dow Theory perform […]

Dow Theory Update for January 26: Secondary (bullish) reaction for Gold and Silver against primary bear market signaled today

posted on: January 26, 2016

US STOCKS The primary and secondary trend is bearish, as explained here: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-14.html Here is an additional post concerning the likely decline to follow primary bear markets signals: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-special-issue-additional.html No secondary reaction has developed yet, albeit it could happen any moment now as explained here. GOLD AND SILVER The primary trend is bearish as explained […]

Dow Theory Update for January 25: Will a secondary (bullish) reaction against the primary bear market materialize soon?

posted on: January 25, 2016

Trends unchanged US STOCKS For roughly 2 ½ months stocks have been declining. Dave Moening of “StateoftheMarkets.com”, whom I hold in high regard, has recently penned that investor’s sentiment is very bearish, and hence, a rally is to be expected. He writes that the odds now favor that one month from now stocks will […]