Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update: Day to think about the unrealized profits in SPY

posted on: November 26, 2013

Precious metals weak (as usual) Today’s been a day without any Dow Theory relevant event. However, it is a good day to think about the current long position in SPY, its unrealized profits and, more importantly, the likelihood for these profits to be erased or locked in by subsequent market action. The primary bull market […]

Dow Theory Update for November 25: Stocks and precious metals take a breather

posted on: November 25, 2013

Trader Dan shares bearish outlook for gold Dan Norcini has recently made a conclusive technical analysis of gold. While he is not applying the Dow Theory to gold and silver, I find his analysis flawless, and from a different perspective, confirms the bearishness of the precious metals sectors. Here you can read his November 22 […]

Dow Theory Update for November 22: Stocks make higher highs

posted on: November 22, 2013

Fundamentalist investor Hugh Hendry acknowledges the importance of trends Zero Hedgequotes Hugh Hendry’s latest statement: “[e]verything I believed in I have had to reject. This environment only makes sense through the prism of trends” I am not going to pick on him because it is legitimate to be a value investor. Furthermore, Hendry’s concession attests […]

Face off: Schannep versus “classical” Dow Theory

posted on: November 22, 2013

Part V. Performance comparison under secular bear markets This post was overdue. But time constraints prevented me from writing it before. This is the last post of the saga “Face-off: Schannep versus classical Dow Theory”. As you well know, until now, four posts have analyzed the Schannep’s Dow Theory and Rhea’s (classical) Dow Theory […]

Dow Theory Update: SIL and GDX extend losses following primary bear market signal

posted on: November 21, 2013

Industrials make higher high unconfirmed US stocks The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The Industrials made a higher closing high unconfirmed. The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here. The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th and November 13th, for the reasons given here and here. Today’s […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Assessing the primary bear market signal for gold and silver miners ETFs.

posted on: November 21, 2013

As I wrote yesterday, the Dow Theory has just signaled a primary bear market for SIL and GDX (the silver and gold miners ETFs). Here you have a chart depicting recent price action. The red lines are the secondary reaction lows that once they got violated by both ETFs flashed a primary bear market signal. […]

Dow Theory Update for November 20: Primary bear market for SIL and GDX signaled today

posted on: November 20, 2013

GLD and SLV remain in primary bear market As followers of this Dow Theory blog know most days are irrelevant from a Dow Theory perspective, as neither the primary nor the secondary trend are changed. This fact does not exempt us, though, from monitoring the markets on a daily basis, since we never know which […]

Dow Theory Update for November 19: Stocks close down on lower volume

posted on: November 19, 2013

Richard Russell takes a breather At the tender age of almost 90 years, it seems that Richard Russell of the “Dow Theory Letters” is starting to take things easier after having been involved with the markets for almost 60 years. The bulk of the “Dow Theory Letters” is now written by two associates, Jon Strebler […]

Dow Theory Update for November 18: Stocks close down on lower volume

posted on: November 18, 2013

Precious metals weak, albeit trends remain unchanged US stocks The SPY, and Transports closed down. The Industrials closed up and made a higher closing high unconfirmed. The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here. The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th and November 13th, for the reasons given […]

Dow Theory Update for November 15: No changes in trends

posted on: November 15, 2013

Today I am really short of time. There are no changes in trends. Neither in stocks, nor in the precious metals arena. Sincerely, The Dow Theorist

Dow Theory Update for November 14: Precious metals could be making a short term bottom

posted on: November 14, 2013

Stocks edge higher US stocks The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here. Well, it is almost four months since a primary bull market was signaled. As you can see in the spreadsheet at the bottom of this post, the unrealized profit amounts to […]

Dow Theory Update for November 13: Primary bull market for stocks reconfirmed

posted on: November 13, 2013

Stocks “in the clear” US stocks The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up and bettered the last recorded primary bull market closing highs. This confirms the current primary bull market, and, accordingly, stocks are “in the clear”. Here you have an updated chart: It is a primary bull market climbing a wall of worry […]