Category: Insights

Rearranging the big picture in a week full of relevant Dow Theory events

posted on: October 6, 2012

Weekly Dow Theory recap This was a week rich in Dow Theory significant events as well plain technical ones. Here is a summary of the messages the markets gave us this week of which this blog took due notice. 1) Bonds are at a critical juncture. If they turn weaker, they may ignite […]

Can Dow Theory be applied to foreign and to non-stock markets?

posted on: October 5, 2012

This “Dow Theory Investment” blog is gaining traction and, to be sincere, it is attracting more following than I initially expected. Unjustly, the Dow Theory tends to be badmouthed, and hence I thought it would be a dull subject for most readers. So I am happy to see that there is a growing readership. My […]

Dow Theory update for Oct 5: Mixed day. Stocks up. PMs universe down.

posted on: October 5, 2012

Primary and secondary movement remains bullish Today was a calm day which did not change the technical picture which remains bullish long and short term for stocks, gold, silver and their miners. This is the way I see things according to the Dow Theory: No changes. The only thing worth mentioning are long-term bonds whose […]

Why do I only write about the Dow Theory?

posted on: October 4, 2012

In German, they have a saying that goes: “Schusterbleibt bei deinen Leisten”which translates into Englishas “Clobber,stick to youtrade.” Inother words: Stay focused. For most investors, the Dow Theory is justan extra tool in their toolbox.It lookstoo simple to bethe consideredthe maintool. Furthermore, sinceit looksso simple,everyone believes thata cursoryreading of themain tenetsof DowTheory makes themexperts and, […]

Dow Theory Update for Oct 4: Very bullish day. Important market action

posted on: October 4, 2012

Secondary reaction in gold and silver definitely avoided. Under Dow Theory today it was a relevant day because market action has clearly aborted the incipient secondary reaction in the gold and silver markets. More on this below. Today was a clearly bullish day. All the markets we monitor closed up for the day. The Industrials […]

Stock markets forming a „line“: What does it mean under Dow Theory?

posted on: October 3, 2012

Follow up to the Dow Theory update for Oct 3 As I said earlier this evening I see that the SPY and the Industrials are forming a so called “line”. What’s a line? I will use Rhea’s definition to understand what a “line” is under Dow Theory. According to him: “A line is a price […]

Dow Theory update for Oct 3: Watch out the miners!

posted on: October 3, 2012

Nonetheless, primary trend remains bullish Today the S&P, Industrials and Transports all closed up. So it seems that the secondary reaction fails to materialize. However, I’m starting to discern a pattern that under Dow Theory has significance. The Industrials and the SPY seem to be forming a “line”. Later today or early tomorrow I […]

Dow Theory update for October 2: Mixed day. No news.

posted on: October 2, 2012

Today the Transports and the SPY closed up. The Industrials closed down. So we had a mixed day with no consequences. So there is nothing new under the Dow Theory. Therefore, what I wrote earlier today “Dissecting a secondary reaction under Dow Theory” about the non existence of a secondary reaction remains valid and unchanged. […]

Dissecting a secondary reaction under Dow Theory

posted on: October 2, 2012

Result: No secondary reaction yet As I promised yesterday, here you have an updated chart of the Industrials, Transports and the SPY and the implication to be derived from a Dow Theory standpoint. As you can see, only the Transports have fulfilled the requirements for a secondary reaction to exist. The Industrials haven’t even corrected […]

Dow Theory update for October 1: Markets up. No technical changes…yet

posted on: October 1, 2012

A secondary correction may happen any time now On Friday, Sept 28, the stock market had been trending lower for the last 10 trading days (for the SPY and Transports). This is the minimum time requirement for a secondary reaction to exist. However, for a secondary reaction to exist it is necessary that two of […]

Plain vanilla Dow Theory? Or does Dow Theory come in many flavors? IV and final

posted on: September 29, 2012

Part IV. Recap and main tenets of my own “flavor” Continued from this post: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/09/plain-vanilla-dow-theory-or-does-dow_22.html All in all: If you want the best advice, follow both Russell and Schannep. Both are great Dow Theorists and both are alive. Take advantage of it! Is any one of the Dow Theory “flavors” we have hitherto analyzed to […]

Dow Theory update for Sept 28: Markets down with no technical consequences

posted on: September 28, 2012

It was Charles Dow, father of the Dow Theory, who said that in the world of investing you have to “exercise enough patience for six men.” He meant by this that the markets don’t accommodate our wishes and even the best laid out investment plan may take time to materialize. The Dow Theorist investing along […]