Category: Daily update

TLT and IEF Watch: Are Bonds on the Brink of a Primary Bear Market Signal?

posted on: February 2, 2024

Not yet, but the setup for a potential bear market signal in US bonds has been completed. General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it here IEF is the iShares 7-10 […]

Navigating the new normal: Why Small-Cap Stocks Lag Behind the S&P 500

posted on: January 24, 2024

The Small-Cap Conundrum: Is the Glory Days of Outperformance Over? Small-Cap Stocks Lag Behind S&P 500. Over the past five years, small-cap stocks have consistently underperformed the S&P 500, as illustrated in the chart below. While occasional bursts of outperformance may occur, I’m skeptical that small caps will revert to their historical pattern of consistently […]

How a Falling ERP Isn’t the Bearish Sign You Thought It Was

posted on: January 23, 2024

Dispelling another investment myth Is a falling Equity/Risk Premium (ERP) bearish for stocks? No, it isn’t. Jay Kaeppel (HERE) debunks another investment fallacy by showing that a falling ERP does not influence the stock market. So, a relatively low yield of stocks vs. bonds has zero predictive power of future performance. Actually, as shown in […]

Is the U.S. stock market overvalued?

posted on: January 18, 2024

Perhaps it is, but there aren’t many alternatives left I’m not a staunch supporter of fundamentals, but if there’s one I truly endorse, it’s economic freedom as a predictor of future prosperity. The freer the market, the more prosperous the nation, and its stock market mirrors this. Therefore, it doesn’t make sense to me to […]

Use and misuse of the Dow Theory

posted on: January 13, 2024

Not everything touted as Dow Theory is the real thing. No technical analysis system is more abused than the Dow Theory. Some individuals peddle their eccentric notions under its banner to profit from its respectable track record, misrepresenting them as Dow Theory to make a catchy headline. A recent case involves the confusion between the […]

U.S. bonds are in a new primary bull market

posted on: December 29, 2023

This post was challenging to compose. Occasionally, trends don’t conform to a textbook pattern, requiring additional interpretation grounded in sound principles. It won’t be an easy read, but sometimes, sound analysis cannot be compressed into a couple of lines. General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to […]

Primary bull market for SIL and GDX signaled on 12/27/23

posted on: December 28, 2023

The table below summarizes the current state of the trend for the precious metals and their ETF miners. There’s a buzz in the air about the USD. Precious metals making notable strides, the Swiss Franc following suit, and both stocks and crypto appear overextended but with a clear eagerness to climb further. General Remarks: In […]

Setup for a potential primary bull market in SIL and GDX completed on 12/11/23

posted on: December 12, 2023

General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. The primary trend for GDX and SIL turned bearish on 6/20/23. You may find an in-depth […]

Dow Theory Update for November 30: Secondary reaction for SIL and GDX signaled on 11/28/23

posted on: November 30, 2023

General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs (GDX & SIL) A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. The primary trend for GDX and SIL turned bearish on 6/20/23. You may […]

Primary bull market for gold and silver signaled on 11/27/23

posted on: November 27, 2023

General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. GOLD AND SILVER A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. I explained HERE that gold and silver have been in a primary bear market since 6/21/23. Following a […]

Dow Theory Update for November 18: U.S. bonds under a secondary reaction against the still-existing bearish trend.

posted on: November 18, 2023

General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it here IEF is the iShares 7-10 years Treasury bond ETF. More about it here. Thus, TLT tracks longer-term US bonds, whereas IEF tracks […]

Bull or Bear? Unveiling the Current State of Silver with YouTuber Alessio Rastani

posted on: November 13, 2023

In our latest episode, Alessio Rastani and I discuss the current state of the silver market. After rallying from its October lows, silver has experienced a recent pullback, prompting us to analyze whether the silver chart is currently exhibiting bullish or bearish signals. To watch the video, click on the image below.