Category: Daily update

Exploring Market Headwinds and Future Scenarios with Alessio Rastani

posted on: November 6, 2023

Navigating Stock Market Challenges: Insights from a Recent YouTube Interview I want to thank Alessio Rastani for having me on his YouTube channel. It was a fantastic experience talking about the current state of the stock market. We covered the two significant challenges that could potentially keep the S&P500 from hitting all-time highs in the […]

Dow Theory Analysis Featured in ‘Markets Insider’: Implications of Recent SELL Signal

posted on: October 23, 2023

I thank Matthew Fox for quoting my Dow Theory analysis in “Markets Insider”. As stated in Matthew’s article, on 10/23/2023, the Dow Industrials broke down below its 10/3/23 closing lows, triggering a SELL signal. The table below shows the most relevant price action that led to the 10/23/23 Sell signal. Historical data from 1953 reveals […]

Bonds in Crisis: Discovering Dow Theory’s Healing Touch

posted on: October 12, 2023

Dow Theory’s Prescription for the Bond Debacle Dilemma Due to the surge in interest rates, long-duration bonds have experienced a significant loss of value, amounting to a 50% drawdown. This substantial decline in the so-called safe haven asset class resembles the drawdowns seen in stock indexes, underscoring the fact that unexpected events occur. Investors sometimes […]

Dow Theory Update: The primary bear market in gold and silver reconfirmed on 9/29/2023

posted on: October 7, 2023

Gold and Silver miners ETFs (GLD & SIL) bearish trend unchanged General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. GOLD AND SILVER A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. I explained HERE that gold and silver […]

Dow Theory Update for September 21: Primary bear market in U.S. bonds reaffirmed on 9/21/23

posted on: September 21, 2023

The bear market in bonds continues… General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it here IEF is the iShares 7-10 years Treasury bond ETF. More about it here. Thus, […]

Dow Theory Update for September 19: No changes in trends but something is going on with gold

posted on: September 19, 2023

All the last updates I produced for gold/silver, GDX/SIL, and TLT/IEF and the U.S. stock market remain unchanged. Markets are like a coiled spring, and the final breakout will likely carry out significant follow-through. However, while markets remain range-bound, something is going on with physical gold. I recently found a Bloomberg article indicating that Shanghai’s […]

The Principle of Confirmation can save your skin (II). Example 2: IEF breakup turned into a bull trap.

posted on: September 2, 2023

In my previous post, I explained the principle of confirmation in action when applied to U.S. stock indexes. In this post, we will see its application to bonds. The starting point is the primary bear market that was signaled on 9/20/22 (as explained HERE). Following the 10/24/22 bear market lows, a rally followed that qualified […]

Dow Theory Update for August 31: Gold and Silver may trigger a new primary bull market soon

posted on: August 31, 2023

The setup for a primary bull market was completed on 8/2/23 General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. GOLD AND SILVER A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. I explained HERE that gold […]

The Principle of Confirmation can save your skin. Example 1. Dow Transportation breakdown

posted on: August 25, 2023

One fundamental tenet of the Dow Theory holds that the movement of one index, when not confirmed by another, should be disregarded. This principle underscores that a Buy or Sell signal originating from one index, such as surpassing a prior high or breaking down below a previous low, carries no significance if it lacks validation […]

Dow Theory Update for July 22th: Secondary reaction for gold and silver signaled on 7/18/23

posted on: July 22, 2023

Executive summary: The gold and silver (GLD & SLV) have been under a secondary reaction since 7/18/23. The current secondary reaction notwithstanding, the primary trend for gold and silver remains bearish. General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. GOLD AND SILVER […]

Dow Theory Update for July 20: Heretical Interpetations of the Dow Theory (II)

posted on: July 21, 2023

Not everything promoted as “Dow Theory” is the correct Dow Theory In four past posts (here, here, here, and here I debunked what I believe are incorrect and underperforming interpretations of the Dow Theory. The Dow Industrials’ newer highs have sparked claims from various “Dow Theory experts” that a new Bull market has emerged, which […]

Dow Theory Update for June 3: Setup for a primary bear market signal for GLD and SLV completed on 6/1/23

posted on: June 9, 2023

I am writing before the close of 6/3/23. So readers, beware, things may change. Executive Summary: 1. The primary trend for gold and silver is bullish, the secondary one is bearish, and the setup for a potential primary bear market signal was completed on 6/1/23. The primary trend for gold and silver ETF miners (GDX […]