Category: Insights

Assessing the Bullish Setup for GDX and SIL in a Bearish Stock Environment

posted on: March 7, 2025

The setup for a potential primary bull market in SIL and GDX was completed on 2/27/25 Overview: Despite declining stock prices, gold and silver miners’ ETFs (GDX and SIL) demonstrate resilience and completed on 2/27/25 the setup for a potential primary bull market signal. As of this writing, neither GDX nor SIL haven broken up […]

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey: How to use it for stock market timing

posted on: February 27, 2025

A contrarian indicator The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) is an organization dedicated to private investors that conducts weekly sentiment surveys to gauge market expectations. Participants respond to the question: “I feel that the direction of the stock market over the next six months will be:” with one of three choices—Up (Bullish), No Change […]

The Principle of Confirmation can save your skin (III). Example 3: Bitcoin breakup turned into a bull trap

posted on: February 17, 2025

Applying the Confirmation Principle to Cryptocurrencies Two earlier analyses (HERE and HERE) demonstrated the effectiveness of the confirmation principle when applied to U.S. stock indexes and bonds, highlighting its value in avoiding trading fakeouts. This principle suggests that a new high or low unconfirmed by another asset or index has a high probability of failing. […]

Secondary reaction for the gold and silver miners ETFs signaled on January 30, 2025

posted on: January 31, 2025

The primary trend remains bearish Overview: All markets are sensing that a new wave of liquidity will be released. Gold, stocks, bonds, and crypto are edging higher. The gold and silver miners’ ETFs, mired in a bear market, have experienced a rally. However, this rally is not enough to change the trend from bearish to […]

While the Bear market in bonds persists, a secondary reaction was signaled on January 30, 2025

posted on: January 31, 2025

Overview: It looks like all markets are sensing that a new wave of liquidity is about to be released. Gold, stocks, and crypto are edging higher. Notably, even bonds, which have been mired in a bear market, have experienced a rally. General Remarks: In this post, I extensively elaborate on the rationale behind employing two […]

Beating the S&P 500: Why Your Stock Picks Might Be Falling Short

posted on: December 23, 2024

The 40-Day Sweet Spot: Rethinking Your Stock Holding Period Most S&P500 constituents fail to outperform the Index in the long run. The evidence provided by Kurtis Hemmerling in his LinkedIn post is compelling and highlights this challenge for individual stock pickers. So, if you buy stocks for the long haul, the odds are greatly stacked […]

Dow Theory signal: Bear Market for Gold and Silver Miners triggered on 12/18/24

posted on: December 20, 2024

Analyzing the Impact of Powell’s Hawkish Stance on GDX and SIL Overview: All markets, gold and silver miners included, reacted negatively to Powell’s more hawkish stance, as investors had anticipated more substantial and frequent rate cuts. The big drop GDX and SIL experienced on 12/18/24 triggered a primary bear market signal. The precious metals themselves, […]

Dow Theory Signals Bear Market in Bonds on 12/18/24

posted on: December 19, 2024

Powell’s Hawkish Tone Triggers Major Shifts in TLT and IEF Overview: All markets, notably bonds, reacted negatively to Powell’s more hawkish stance, as investors had anticipated more substantial and frequent rate cuts. The big drop TLT and IEF experienced on 12/18/24 triggered a primary bear market signal. Later today, or tomorrow, I will write about […]

Bonds at crossroads: Set up for a potential bear market signal for TLT and IEF completed on 11/27/24

posted on: November 29, 2024

Dissecting the most recent price action for TLT & IEF. Key price levels to monitor Overview: the most recent rally within an extended secondary (bearish) reaction has set up TLT and IEF for a potential primary bear market signal. The trend remains bullish to this day, but if the key prices I show in this […]

When Trends Speak Louder Than Data: Why Trend Following Wins Against Macro Investing

posted on: November 21, 2024

AI’s Verdict: Trend Following Trumps Macro in the Investment Arena I often receive emails highlighting macroeconomic data that supposedly contradicts or challenges the signals provided by price action—or trend-following—in markets like stocks, crypto, bonds, etc. These messages can give the impression that trend-following alone isn’t enough to keep us on the right side of the […]

Gold and Silver at a Crossroads: Bull Continuation or Bear Market Ahead?

posted on: November 20, 2024

Breaking Down Gold and Silver: A Critical Moment Overview: In a similar fashion to the gold and Silver miner’s ETFs, gold and silver reached a make-or-break moment on 20/19/24. The setup for a potential bear market has been completed, and the line on the sand has been drawn. In this post, we examine the key […]

Precious Metals Miners at a Crossroads: Bull Continuation or Bear Market Ahead?

posted on: November 19, 2024

Breaking Down the Gold and Silver Miners ETF: A Critical Moment Overview: The gold and silver miners ETF reached a make-or-break moment on 11/19/24. The setup for a potential bear market has been completed, and the line on the sand has been drawn. While gold and silver themselves have not yet completed the setup for […]