Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for January 2: Are stocks topping out?

posted on: January 2, 2014

In spite of some today’s up close, precious metals remain in the grips of the bear Tom Vician is a successful trend follower. His latest post in his “TrendFollowing Trader” blog alerts us that markets are severely overbought, both technically and in sentiment. Furthermore, he notes that the market laggards have recently outperformed the market. […]

Dow Theory Update for December 31: Stocks close up making confirmed higher highs

posted on: December 31, 2013

Precious metals finish the year close to lowest lows Let’s get started with our last Dow Theory commentary for 2013. US stocks The SPY, Industrials and the Transports closed up and made confirmed higher closing highs. As a faithful trend follower, I can only say that the primary bull market continues unabated. Maybe it […]

Dow Theory Update for December 30: Unconclusive day for stocks

posted on: December 30, 2013

Timing the next primary bear market in stocks The website “State of the Markets,” run by Dave Moenning produces, in my opinion, one of the best market commentaries. And their free content is much better than that offered by other paid subscription sites (Schannep and a few others, excluded, of course, where subscribers find real […]

Dow Theory Update: Indistinct day on low volume

posted on: December 27, 2013

Gold and silver come to life, close up for 5 consecutive days, but no trend has changed US stocks The Industrials and Transports closed slightly down, and the SPY closed unchanged. Unrealized gains continue mounting (please mind the word “unrealized“) and near 9% for the position that was initiated on July. I would welcome a […]

Dow Theory Update for December 26: Stocks make higher highs and primary bull market remains unchallenged

posted on: December 26, 2013

More on the primary bear market anniversary in gold and silver Last Tuesday24th, I wrote about the first anniversary of the primary bear market signal in gold and silver. Today, I’d like to add a couple of random thoughts on this issue. It is good to remember that many experts had been trying unsuccessfully […]

Dow Theory Update for December 24: Happy anniversary (for those standing on the sidelines): Primary bear market signal in gold and silver grows one year old

posted on: December 24, 2013

Stocks make higher highs On December 20, 2012, this Dow Theory blog signaled the existence of a primary bear market in gold and silver, as was explained here. Well, last Friday December 20, 2013, the primary bear market signal grew 1 year old. So happy anniversary for those that heeded the signal. On December 20, […]

Dow Theory Update for December 23: Stocks make higher highs

posted on: December 23, 2013

Tom Demark’s analysis for 2014: A crash in the making for stocks and rebound for gold? Tom Demark is a well-known technical analyst with a remarkable track record. Tom appeared on CNBC on December 16th, and discussed how the Fed has clearly prevented sell-offs in the US stock market time and time again for […]

Dow Theory Update for December 20: XAU/GOLD ratio at 30 years low: Are Gold miners a “buy” now?

posted on: December 20, 2013

Stocks make higher highs confirmed Yesterday GDX made lower lows. Coincidentally, the XAU index versus gold has reached a 30 years low. Accordingly, gold miners are the cheapest for the last 30 years in terms of gold. Is this a buying opportunity? If we bet for a reversion to the mean, I’d answer “yes”. However, […]

Dow Theory Update for December 19: Gold and Silver close to signaling primary bear market signal

posted on: December 20, 2013

Stocks take a breather The assessment I made yesterday, some 80 minutes before the close, remains valid. SLV closed down but refused to violate its primary bear market low (June 27th). GLD closed down and decidedly violated its primary bear market low (June 27th). However, as followers of this blog know, under the Dow Theory, […]

Today’s post delayed until tomorrow before the open. Trends unchanged

posted on: December 19, 2013

Some 80 minutes before the close I see that GLD (gold) pierced the primary bear market lows but silver SLV refused to do so. So lower lows in gold unconfirmed by silver negate any message under the Dow Theory. To re-confirm the primary bear market signal, SLV should close below its primary bear market lows […]

Dow Theory Update for December 18: Industrials and SPY make higher highs. Primary Bull market reconfirmed

posted on: December 18, 2013

Gold and silver plummet but fail to make lower lows Yesterday, I observed that most of the days were not relevant under a Dow Theory standpoint. Well, today it is a relevant day. The SPY and the Industrials pierced their last recorded closing highs and by doing this the primary bull market has been […]

Dow Theory Update for December 17: Deflationary day, albeit trends remain unchanged

posted on: December 17, 2013

Dow Theory Letters and daily noise. In the latest “Dow Theory Letter”, Mark Kerkhoff, has stated that they have a tough job at the Dow Theory Letters because they must analyze the markets daily whereas their focus is the Primary Trend. I understand Mr. Kerkhoff, since daily movements tend to be mere noise. However, one […]