Category: Insights

Critical Stock Market Update: The classical Dow Theory signaled a bull market on 2/8/24

posted on: February 13, 2024

Reminder: The Dow Theory for the 21st Century provides even more precise timing for the stock market I will explain the latest “classical” Dow Theory buy signal in this post. I must state that I don’t trade this kind of Dow Theory, despite its good record of outperformance and drawdown reduction vs. Buy and Hold. […]

Gold’s Downturn? Dow Theory Signals Market Risk Ahead

posted on: February 6, 2024

Setup for a potential primary bear market for GLD and SLV completed Mark Hulbert, known for his keen market timing insights on MarketWatch, recently shared concerns about the longevity of the current gold bull market in this article. It’s worth noting that excessive bullish sentiment can sometimes signal a bearish outlook. Check out his 2/5/23 […]

TLT and IEF Watch: Are Bonds on the Brink of a Primary Bear Market Signal?

posted on: February 2, 2024

Not yet, but the setup for a potential bear market signal in US bonds has been completed. General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it here IEF is the iShares 7-10 […]

Navigating the new normal: Why Small-Cap Stocks Lag Behind the S&P 500

posted on: January 24, 2024

The Small-Cap Conundrum: Is the Glory Days of Outperformance Over? Small-Cap Stocks Lag Behind S&P 500. Over the past five years, small-cap stocks have consistently underperformed the S&P 500, as illustrated in the chart below. While occasional bursts of outperformance may occur, I’m skeptical that small caps will revert to their historical pattern of consistently […]

How a Falling ERP Isn’t the Bearish Sign You Thought It Was

posted on: January 23, 2024

Dispelling another investment myth Is a falling Equity/Risk Premium (ERP) bearish for stocks? No, it isn’t. Jay Kaeppel (HERE) debunks another investment fallacy by showing that a falling ERP does not influence the stock market. So, a relatively low yield of stocks vs. bonds has zero predictive power of future performance. Actually, as shown in […]

Is the U.S. stock market overvalued?

posted on: January 18, 2024

Perhaps it is, but there aren’t many alternatives left I’m not a staunch supporter of fundamentals, but if there’s one I truly endorse, it’s economic freedom as a predictor of future prosperity. The freer the market, the more prosperous the nation, and its stock market mirrors this. Therefore, it doesn’t make sense to me to […]

Use and misuse of the Dow Theory

posted on: January 13, 2024

Not everything touted as Dow Theory is the real thing. No technical analysis system is more abused than the Dow Theory. Some individuals peddle their eccentric notions under its banner to profit from its respectable track record, misrepresenting them as Dow Theory to make a catchy headline. A recent case involves the confusion between the […]

U.S. bonds are in a new primary bull market

posted on: December 29, 2023

This post was challenging to compose. Occasionally, trends don’t conform to a textbook pattern, requiring additional interpretation grounded in sound principles. It won’t be an easy read, but sometimes, sound analysis cannot be compressed into a couple of lines. General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to […]

Primary bull market for SIL and GDX signaled on 12/27/23

posted on: December 28, 2023

The table below summarizes the current state of the trend for the precious metals and their ETF miners. There’s a buzz in the air about the USD. Precious metals making notable strides, the Swiss Franc following suit, and both stocks and crypto appear overextended but with a clear eagerness to climb further. General Remarks: In […]

Trend following works with crypto. Interview.

posted on: December 27, 2023

I thank Alexandra Overgaag and David Fernandez for having me on Thrilld Labs, a free and open-access business app that allows Web3 projects, professional investors, developers, and Web3 service providers from around the world to find each other and talk synergies in a streamlined manner. In the interview, I showed that trend-following can also be […]

Setup for a potential primary bull market in SIL and GDX completed on 12/11/23

posted on: December 12, 2023

General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. The primary trend for GDX and SIL turned bearish on 6/20/23. You may find an in-depth […]

Dow Theory Update for November 30: Secondary reaction for SIL and GDX signaled on 11/28/23

posted on: November 30, 2023

General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs (GDX & SIL) A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. The primary trend for GDX and SIL turned bearish on 6/20/23. You may […]