Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for Feb 20: Precious metals debacle

posted on: February 20, 2013

Stocks also down. Once again, Barry Ritholtz of “The Big Picture” has posted a very interesting article concerning “timing” in his blog. In a nutshell, Barry’s system works as follows: 1. A 10 month moving is used a timing device. 2. When the price closes below the 10 month moving average sell your stocks and […]

Dow Theory Update for Feb 19: Stocks up. No change in trends

posted on: February 19, 2013

GLD may be close to making a bottom, in spite of today’s weakness. Lars Schall has just posted on his website an insightful interview to David P. Goldman where issues such as gold, TIPS and ordinary bonds, and the End game, namely, inflation in USA and wealth confiscation (though punitive wealth taxes) in Europe are […]

Dow Theory Update for Feb 15: Precious metals in free fall

posted on: February 15, 2013

Primary bear market re-confirmed for GLD and SLV Let’s get started with our daily Dow Theory commentary in this blog. The “Pragmatic Capitalism” blog posted yesterday an interesting article concerning historical drawdowns for stocks and bonds. The figures displayed in Pragmatic Capitalism should make any serious investor think it twice before committing one’s life savings […]

Dow Theory Update for Feb 14: Measuring the odds for a new correction

posted on: February 14, 2013

New low in gold unconfirmed by silver Let’s begin our Dow Theory commentary in this blog by talking about stocks. Zero Hedgeposted yesterday an interesting article concerning the current rally (primary bull market swing in Dow Theory parlance) and its odds of its stretching further into the future. Zero Hedge notes that the current primary […]

Dow Theory Update for Feb 13: Gold and silver down

posted on: February 13, 2013

Stocks mostly up Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today. The SPY and Transports closed up. The Industrials closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish. Volume was up. Since today it was an up day, it has a bullish connotation. For the reasons stated here, I see the overall pattern […]

Dow Theory Update for Feb 12: The SPY and Industrials make higher highs

posted on: February 12, 2013

Gold and silver up. Jim Sinclair, legendary investor and trader, wrote on his website “Mineset” an article entitled “Bite the Emotional Restraint Bullet”. According to Sinclair, the bear market in gold is very close to its end, and the next bull leg could take gold above $3,500 and, with it, the gold miners would shine […]

Dow Theory Update for Feb 11: Gold testing recent lows

posted on: February 11, 2013

Stocks mildly down. Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today. Do you want to know how the Dow Theory fared during the secular 1966-1981 bear market? You can find the answer here. The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish. Volume was lower than Friday’s. Since […]

Dow Theory special issue: Dow Theory’s performance during the secular 1966-1981 bear market

posted on: February 9, 2013

How often does the Dow Theory outperform buy and hold? Part II In my post “How often does the Dow Theory outperform buy and hold?”, which you can find here, I started a series of articles dedicated to examining the classical/Rhea Dow Theory “flavor” under all market environments and across time. In that post, we […]

Dow Theory Update for Feb 8: Waiting for a correction

posted on: February 8, 2013

Precious metals still weak. Barry Ritholtz blog “The Big Picture” includes an interesting post today entitled “Majority Opinion About Equity Markets.” He makes the point that markets can stay overbought longer than most can expect. This is precisely what we are currently witnessing in the stock market. Keynes said that markets can stay irrational longer […]

Dow Theory Update for Feb 7: Inconclusive day with no change in trends

posted on: February 7, 2013

Precious metals continue aimless. I am finishing a new post for this Dow Theory blog, which will continue the series I started with my post “How often does the Dow Theory outperform buy and hold?” In the next issue, I will focus on the secular 1966-1981 bear market. I will look under the magnifier the […]

Dow Theory Update for Feb 6: Stocks almost unchanged

posted on: February 6, 2013

Precious metals timidly up I read recently that Richard Russell, of the “Dow Theory Letters,” needs to see the Industrials making all new time highs in order to unambiguously declare the primary trend as bullish. With all due respect, I beg to disagree with Russell. Even under the Rhea/classical Dow Theory a primary bull market […]

Dow Theory Update for Feb 5: Stocks up. No change of trends

posted on: February 5, 2013

Precious metals mixed By the way, today “The Big Picture” blog contains an interesting piece of research supporting the value of technical analysis. You can find it here and it is worth your time. Page 20 of the report notes that technical approaches tend to outperform in bad years for the market, which is fully […]