Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for Feb 7: Inconclusive day with no change in trends

posted on: February 7, 2013

Precious metals continue aimless. I am finishing a new post for this Dow Theory blog, which will continue the series I started with my post “How often does the Dow Theory outperform buy and hold?” In the next issue, I will focus on the secular 1966-1981 bear market. I will look under the magnifier the […]

Dow Theory Update for Feb 6: Stocks almost unchanged

posted on: February 6, 2013

Precious metals timidly up I read recently that Richard Russell, of the “Dow Theory Letters,” needs to see the Industrials making all new time highs in order to unambiguously declare the primary trend as bullish. With all due respect, I beg to disagree with Russell. Even under the Rhea/classical Dow Theory a primary bull market […]

Dow Theory Update for Feb 5: Stocks up. No change of trends

posted on: February 5, 2013

Precious metals mixed By the way, today “The Big Picture” blog contains an interesting piece of research supporting the value of technical analysis. You can find it here and it is worth your time. Page 20 of the report notes that technical approaches tend to outperform in bad years for the market, which is fully […]

Dow Theory Update for Feb 4: Stocks finally down

posted on: February 4, 2013

Precious metals mixed. Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary in this blog. The SPY, the Industrials and the Transports closed down. It is too soon to announce the onset of a secondary reaction (we need a pullback of at least 3% in two indices). Thus, the primary and secondary trend remains bullish until […]

Dow Theory Update for Feb 1: Bonds falling out of bed

posted on: February 1, 2013

Stocks and precious metals up I’ve been mentioning frequently the BLV (long-term bond term bond) / GLD (gold) ratio of late (red line on the chart). I am doing this because I feel this is the chart to see, and that we are seeing an epic battle in front of our eyes. Here you have […]

Dow Theory Update for Jan 31: Is a secondary reaction starting?

posted on: January 31, 2013

Precious metals continue weak. Let’s see what the Dow Theory has in store for us today. The Transports closed up. The SPY and Transports closed down. By the way, Schannep of, “thedowtheory.com”, has been again been vindicated. In September 2012, he recommended buying the Transports when they were, according to the mainstream, in their death […]

Dow Theory Update for Jan 30: Stocks finally down. No changes in trends

posted on: January 30, 2013

Something unpleasant may be happening to the USD and Bonds Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today. The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down today. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish. Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since it was a down day, it has a bullish connotation since lower prices […]

Dow Theory Update for Jan 29: Precious metals decline arrested?

posted on: January 29, 2013

Stocks losing momentum Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today. The SPY and Industrials closed up, thereby making higher highs. The Transports slightly down. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish. Volume was higher than yesterday’s. Since it was an “up” day, volume supported advancing prices, which is bullish. Gold (GLD) and […]

Dow Theory Update for Jan 28: Precious metals meltdown unabated

posted on: January 28, 2013

Stocks hold its ground. Today is going to be a short post. Stocks closed mixed. The SPY and Industrials closed slightly down. The Transports slightly up. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish. Volume was lower tan last Friday’s. Since the SPY closed down, this is a bullish sign. Gold and silver (GLD and SLV) […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Assessing the primary bear market signal for gold and silver miners ETFs

posted on: January 26, 2013

Should we heed the Dow Theory when applied to ETFs? As you could read in this post, the Dow Theory has recently signaled a primary bear market for GDX and SIL (the gold and silver miners ETFs). Here you have a chart depicting recent price action. The pink lines are the secondary reaction lows that […]

Dow Theory Update for Jan 25: Stocks continue making higher highs

posted on: January 25, 2013

Precious metal’s meltdown continues unabated. In Barry Ritholz blog, we can find an interesting post concerning the average duration of bull markets. You can find this interesting post here: Even though the way the duration of such bull markets has not been defined according to the Dow Theory (the average duration stands at ca. […]

Dow Theory Update for Jan 24: Primary bear market signaled for Gold and Silver ETFs (GDX and SIL)

posted on: January 24, 2013

Stocks holding their own. Let’s begin our analysis of the markets under the prism of the Dow Theory. The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up, thereby making a new confirmed high, which is bullish. Volume was higher than yesterday’s and since, overall (and in spite of NASDAQ action), the major indices closed up. This […]