Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for Dec 17: Stocks up. No change in trends

posted on: December 17, 2012

Gold and silver indecisive Let’s review the state of the stock market under the prism of the Dow Theory. The SPY, Transports and the Industrials closed up. Technically, nothing has been accomplished. However, if this rally continues and the highest highs hitherto made are jointly bettered by at least two indices, then a primary […]

Dow Theory Update for Dec 14: Stocks down. Precious metals mixed

posted on: December 14, 2012

Under Dow Theory nothing has changed Let’s begin with our Dow Theory analysis for today in this blog. What are other Dow Theorists doing? Richard Russell, of the “Dow Theory Letters”, who was turning mildly bullish (or at least not outright bearish short term) is turning bearish again. He hoped that the last rally was […]

Dow Theory Update for Dec 13: QE sputtering out

posted on: December 13, 2012

Stocks and precious metals down Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary in this blog. The SPY and the Industrials closed down. The Transports closed up. The primary trend remains bearish and the secondary bullish. Volume was down today. Since stocks closed down today, it has a bullish connotation, as the decline was not […]

Dow Theory Update for Dec 12: Indecisive day for stocks

posted on: December 12, 2012

Gold, silver and their miners up Let’s try to gauge the pulse of the markets armed with our Dow Theory tools in this blog. Today the SPY closed up (barely) whereas the Industrials and Transports closed down. The primary trend remains bearish and the secondary trend bullish. As to volume, I consider it a neutral […]

Dow Theory Update for Dec 11: Stocks up. No change in trends

posted on: December 11, 2012

Precious metals mostly down. Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today. The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The primary trend remains bearish and the secondary trend (secondary reaction) bullish. Volume was higher than yesterday’s and since today was an up day, it has a bullish connotation (at last!). The overall pattern […]

Dow Theory Update for Dec 10: No change of trends under the Dow Theory

posted on: December 10, 2012

Mildly bullish day Before I start with our Dow Theory commentary, you may be may be interested in reading my post in this blog entitled “Don’t fall in love with your stocks! Love is always dangerous” which you can find here. Today was a mildly bullish day. The SPY barely nudged up. The Industrials […]

Don’t fall in love with your stocks! Love is always dangerous

posted on: December 10, 2012

How to develop confidence in the Dow Theory Today I read two good posts that highlight the importance of not falling in love with your stocks. In the “Systematic Relative Strength” blog, there is an interesting post concerning the risk of loving one stock. Please click here. In the “Big Picture” blog, there is another […]

Dow Theory Update for Dec 7: Stocks and precious metals up

posted on: December 7, 2012

No changes in trends. What are other Dow Theorists saying? Richard Russell, of the Dow Theory Letters fame, is mixed (as far as I can conclude). He says that as long as the 11/15/2012 lows are not violated there is hope for the bulls. However, until the October highs are not broken out, he will […]

Dow Theory Update for Dec 6: Stocks mildly up. No changes in trends

posted on: December 6, 2012

Gold and silver barely up. Let’s begin with our analysis of the markets under the Dow Theory. The SPY and the Industrials closed up. The Transports barely down. Volume was lower than yesterday’s and given that the SPY closed up today, it has a bearish connotation, as the upward move was not supported by volume. […]

Why I like timing? Why I love the Dow Theory as a capital protector?

posted on: December 5, 2012

When the stock market runs smoothly as it did in the 80s and 90s there seems to be little need for any timing device. Be it the Dow Theory or a moving average. However, when the cake is shrinking or not growing, or, simply, the market decides that it is time for lower multiples and […]

Dow Theory Update for Dec 5: Stocks up. No change in trends

posted on: December 5, 2012

Gold and silver modestly down. Let’s see what the Dow Theory has in store for us today. The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up today. The primary trend remains bearish, the secondary one bullish. Volume was higher than yesterday’s. Being an up day, it has a bullish connotation. In the last 6 days we have […]

Dow Theory special issue: Dissecting the current secondary reaction in the stock market

posted on: December 4, 2012

A secondary reaction within a primary bear market As I promised in my yesterday’s post in this Dow Theory blog, I will provide you with additional information as to the ongoing secondary reaction. As a recap, we know that the Dow Theory signaled a primary bear market on Nov 16. You have the details […]