Category: Insights

Dow Theory update for Oct 3: Watch out the miners!

posted on: October 3, 2012

Nonetheless, primary trend remains bullish Today the S&P, Industrials and Transports all closed up. So it seems that the secondary reaction fails to materialize. However, I’m starting to discern a pattern that under Dow Theory has significance. The Industrials and the SPY seem to be forming a “line”. Later today or early tomorrow I […]

Dow Theory update for October 2: Mixed day. No news.

posted on: October 2, 2012

Today the Transports and the SPY closed up. The Industrials closed down. So we had a mixed day with no consequences. So there is nothing new under the Dow Theory. Therefore, what I wrote earlier today “Dissecting a secondary reaction under Dow Theory” about the non existence of a secondary reaction remains valid and unchanged. […]

Dissecting a secondary reaction under Dow Theory

posted on: October 2, 2012

Result: No secondary reaction yet As I promised yesterday, here you have an updated chart of the Industrials, Transports and the SPY and the implication to be derived from a Dow Theory standpoint. As you can see, only the Transports have fulfilled the requirements for a secondary reaction to exist. The Industrials haven’t even corrected […]

Dow Theory update for October 1: Markets up. No technical changes…yet

posted on: October 1, 2012

A secondary correction may happen any time now On Friday, Sept 28, the stock market had been trending lower for the last 10 trading days (for the SPY and Transports). This is the minimum time requirement for a secondary reaction to exist. However, for a secondary reaction to exist it is necessary that two of […]

Plain vanilla Dow Theory? Or does Dow Theory come in many flavors? IV and final

posted on: September 29, 2012

Part IV. Recap and main tenets of my own “flavor” Continued from this post: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/09/plain-vanilla-dow-theory-or-does-dow_22.html All in all: If you want the best advice, follow both Russell and Schannep. Both are great Dow Theorists and both are alive. Take advantage of it! Is any one of the Dow Theory “flavors” we have hitherto analyzed to […]

Dow Theory update for Sept 28: Markets down with no technical consequences

posted on: September 28, 2012

It was Charles Dow, father of the Dow Theory, who said that in the world of investing you have to “exercise enough patience for six men.” He meant by this that the markets don’t accommodate our wishes and even the best laid out investment plan may take time to materialize. The Dow Theorist investing along […]

Dow Theory update for Sept 27: Bull markets don’t die easily

posted on: September 27, 2012

Gold and Silver on the verge of breaking out prior highs Today all markets I monitor closed up. What else can I say? The primary bull market remains intact and the long awaited secondary correction (which would be a good opportunity for latecomers to be long stocks and precious metals as you can read here) […]

Do the Transports still matter under Dow Theory?

posted on: September 27, 2012

Should other indices be included? What indices should be taken into account in order to apply Dow Theory? This is a thorny issue where disagreement reigns among the Dow Theorist fraternity. I hope this blog helps little by little to set the record straight. This post is a small contribution to this noble end. Some […]

Dow Theory update for Sept 26: Finally, we get a 3% pullback

posted on: September 26, 2012

However, precious metals still resilient The three stock indices I monitor closed down for the day and we get some news which I would label of “tertiary” importance. I see three kinds of movements. The first is the primary trend or primary movement which may span more than one year. The second one is the […]

Dow Theory update for Sept 25: All markets down. No technical damage yet

posted on: September 25, 2012

Talk about resilience!! The long awaited secondary reaction hasn’t materialized yet, all the big declines of today notwithstanding. Today all the markets we monitor closed down. However, as I noted yesterday, not even a minor insignificant low has been broken yet. I quote from yesterday’s post which you can find here However, the decline experienced […]

5 Reasons why I consider the stock market in a primary bull market

posted on: September 24, 2012

Restating the bullish case as per Dow Theory among pervasive bearishness Today I became more convinced than ever of the motto “bull markets always climb a wall of worry”. Most of the commentators are outright bearish. Some of them on a fundamental basis (“the world is going to end”, “QE will further destroy the economy”, […]

Dow Theory update for Sept 24: Not even a secondary reaction…yet

posted on: September 24, 2012

Today has been a mildly down day. Both the SPY and the Industrials closed down. The Transports, again diverging, closed slightly up for the day. Since Sept 14 the stock market has been unable to make new highs. However, the decline experienced until now is so mild that even the last minor recorded lows (they […]