Category: Insights

The price of not heeding the Dow Theory: 6.05% from 06/29/2012 to date

posted on: September 8, 2012

I frequently visit “The Big Picture” to be updated on financial matters. It is a wonderful website. Yesterday I found this post entitled “Sell Side Indicator” which you can find here The gist of the post is a chart that shows the extreme bearishness of asset managers and analysts. In other words, since the Dow […]

Dow Theory market update for Sept 7, 2012: No changes. Both primary and secondary movement bullish.

posted on: September 7, 2012

Well, nothing has changed since my last post. The Dow Theory primary bull market signals we detected in the precious metals, the precious metals miners (ETFs) and, more importantly, the stock market remain fully in force. Both the primary and the secondary trend remain bullish under the Dow Theory An image is more worth than […]

Dow Theory update: New Market highs confirm primary bull movement.

posted on: September 6, 2012

In my yesterday’s post “Dow Theory signals a new primary bullmarket in gold and silver miners” I said that the markets seemed to be “smelling” more liquidity coming. Thus, I wrote: The market is clearly telling us that the tide was turning already by the end of June in favor of more liquidity And In […]

Dow Theory signals a new primary bull market in gold and silver miners. II

posted on: September 6, 2012

Yesterdaywe discussed that a new primary bull market in gold and silver stocks was under way as per my interpretation of the Dow Theory. Today, we are going to look into the details of the Dow Theory signal. For the purposes of this post I will use the silver miners ETFs SIL (for silver miners) […]

Dow Theory signals a new primary bull market in gold and silver miners

posted on: September 5, 2012

In my posts of August 29 and 30 I said that a new primary bull market for gold and silver had been signaled by the Dow Theory. You can find the analysis I made of the gold and silver markets here and here. I wrote that the only negative note was the absence of confirmation […]

Where is the stock market now as per Dow Theory? Bull or bear? II

posted on: September 5, 2012

The market is in a primary bull market since June 29, 2012 Well, we know from yesterday’s post that the primary movement remain bullish. Today, we will further study the other two vital indices (Transports and S&P) and we will derive the implications for the investor of a primary bull market movement. I said yesterday […]

Where is the stock market now as per Dow Theory? Bull or bear?

posted on: September 3, 2012

While Dow Theory is not an exact science, I can confidently say that my interpretation of Dow Theory shows that we are within a primary bull market movement. The bull market signal was given on June 29, 2012 when both the Industrials and the S&P bettered their previous correction highs. Since then the bullish signal […]

Fundamental versus Technical analysis and Dow Theory. Who is right?

posted on: August 31, 2012

The sad truth is that whatever method you apply it is very difficult to make money in the markets. As the saying goes: It is easier to talk (or write) about money than making it. Thus, it is difficult to discern (a) the encrypted messages of technical analysis, and (b) the validity of the “fundamental” […]

The Dow Theory gives us order. It provides us with a framework to analyze the market.

posted on: August 30, 2012

We fail at making money in the markets not because of a lack of tools but because we (1) lack consistency in using our tools, (2) have an undefined time-frame and (3) lack of well defined exits (stops) Dow Theory addresses these three issues: It allows us to be consistent. Of course, to be consistent […]

August 22, 2012. Dow Theory signals a new primary bull movement in gold and silver? II

posted on: August 30, 2012

Yesterday we discussed that a new primary bull market in gold and silver was born as per my interpretation of the Dow Theory. Today, we are going to look into the details of the Dow Theory signal. For the purposes of this post I will use GLD and SLV (the most popular gold and silver […]

August 22, 2012. Dow Theory signals a new primary bull movement in gold and silver

posted on: August 29, 2012

First of all, we have to know our time frame. As I tend to say to market practitioners: “Show me your time frame”. It is easy to forecast the market without defining the time frame where the prediction is supposed to play out. Even a couple of up days could be labelled as a bull […]

How to learn Dow Theory?

posted on: August 29, 2012

While we will discuss and deepen all the tenets of the Dow Theory and apply them “life” to the markets, this blog is neither a primer nor a book on Dow Theory. Any reader interested in becoming conversant with Dow Theory is highly encouraged to passionately read the following books: I would begin with this […]