Category: Daily update

Melt up: gold and silver soar, triggering a new Dow Theory bull market signal on 4/2/24

posted on: April 3, 2024

SIL and GDX are also in a Bull market since 4/3/24 Overview: On 4/3/24, SLV finally surpassed its 12/1/23 closing high at 23.33 and confirmed GLD, which had breached its 12/27/23 highs on 3/1/24. So, now, according to the Dow Theory, a primary bull market in gold and silver has been signaled. Today, 4/3/24, SIL […]

Unveiling the current trend: Primary bear market for gold and silver miners ETFs signaled on 2/28/24

posted on: March 4, 2024

Bitcoin soars, gold rallies, but silver and gold and silver miners refuse to confirm Overview: Despite the rally that gold has experienced in the last few days that brought gold to higher highs, the primary trend remains bearish because silver has refused to confirm. If/when SLV surpasses its 12/1/23 high, the primary trend would shift […]

Unforeseen CPI Jump Rattles Markets: A Deep Dive into Gold and Silver and their New Bear market signaled on 2/13/24

posted on: February 15, 2024

Gold and Silver are in bearish trends according to the Dow Theory Overview: On 2/13/24, January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeded expectations, triggering significant market upheaval. The Headline CPI saw a 0.3% month-over-month increase compared to the previous month’s 0.2% rise. This unexpected development led to widespread turmoil: Stocks plummeted. Precious metals and their mining stocks […]

Unforseen CPI Jump Rattles Markets: A Deep Dive into U.S.Treasuries and their new Bear market signaled on 2/13/24

posted on: February 14, 2024

Stocks Plunge but bull market unchanged, and precious metals in a Bear market now: Market Reactions to CPI Surprise Overview: Yesterday (2/13/24) morning’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report surpassed expectations, triggering significant market upheaval. The Headline CPI saw a 0.3% month-over-month increase compared to the previous month’s 0.2% rise. This unexpected development led to […]

Critical Stock Market Update: The classical Dow Theory signaled a bull market on 2/8/24

posted on: February 13, 2024

Reminder: The Dow Theory for the 21st Century provides even more precise timing for the stock market I will explain the latest “classical” Dow Theory buy signal in this post. I must state that I don’t trade this kind of Dow Theory, despite its good record of outperformance and drawdown reduction vs. Buy and Hold. […]

Gold’s Downturn? Dow Theory Signals Market Risk Ahead

posted on: February 6, 2024

Setup for a potential primary bear market for GLD and SLV completed Mark Hulbert, known for his keen market timing insights on MarketWatch, recently shared concerns about the longevity of the current gold bull market in this article. It’s worth noting that excessive bullish sentiment can sometimes signal a bearish outlook. Check out his 2/5/23 […]

TLT and IEF Watch: Are Bonds on the Brink of a Primary Bear Market Signal?

posted on: February 2, 2024

Not yet, but the setup for a potential bear market signal in US bonds has been completed. General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it here IEF is the iShares 7-10 […]

Navigating the new normal: Why Small-Cap Stocks Lag Behind the S&P 500

posted on: January 24, 2024

The Small-Cap Conundrum: Is the Glory Days of Outperformance Over? Small-Cap Stocks Lag Behind S&P 500. Over the past five years, small-cap stocks have consistently underperformed the S&P 500, as illustrated in the chart below. While occasional bursts of outperformance may occur, I’m skeptical that small caps will revert to their historical pattern of consistently […]

How a Falling ERP Isn’t the Bearish Sign You Thought It Was

posted on: January 23, 2024

Dispelling another investment myth Is a falling Equity/Risk Premium (ERP) bearish for stocks? No, it isn’t. Jay Kaeppel (HERE) debunks another investment fallacy by showing that a falling ERP does not influence the stock market. So, a relatively low yield of stocks vs. bonds has zero predictive power of future performance. Actually, as shown in […]

Is the U.S. stock market overvalued?

posted on: January 18, 2024

Perhaps it is, but there aren’t many alternatives left I’m not a staunch supporter of fundamentals, but if there’s one I truly endorse, it’s economic freedom as a predictor of future prosperity. The freer the market, the more prosperous the nation, and its stock market mirrors this. Therefore, it doesn’t make sense to me to […]

Use and misuse of the Dow Theory

posted on: January 13, 2024

Not everything touted as Dow Theory is the real thing. No technical analysis system is more abused than the Dow Theory. Some individuals peddle their eccentric notions under its banner to profit from its respectable track record, misrepresenting them as Dow Theory to make a catchy headline. A recent case involves the confusion between the […]

U.S. bonds are in a new primary bull market

posted on: December 29, 2023

This post was challenging to compose. Occasionally, trends don’t conform to a textbook pattern, requiring additional interpretation grounded in sound principles. It won’t be an easy read, but sometimes, sound analysis cannot be compressed into a couple of lines. General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to […]