Category: Dow Theory

Unveiling the current trend: Primary bear market for gold and silver miners ETFs signaled on 2/28/24

posted on: March 4, 2024

Bitcoin soars, gold rallies, but silver and gold and silver miners refuse to confirm Overview: Despite the rally that gold has experienced in the last few days that brought gold to higher highs, the primary trend remains bearish because silver has refused to confirm. If/when SLV surpasses its 12/1/23 high, the primary trend would shift […]

Unforeseen CPI Jump Rattles Markets: A Deep Dive into Gold and Silver and their New Bear market signaled on 2/13/24

posted on: February 15, 2024

Gold and Silver are in bearish trends according to the Dow Theory Overview: On 2/13/24, January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeded expectations, triggering significant market upheaval. The Headline CPI saw a 0.3% month-over-month increase compared to the previous month’s 0.2% rise. This unexpected development led to widespread turmoil: Stocks plummeted. Precious metals and their mining stocks […]

Unforseen CPI Jump Rattles Markets: A Deep Dive into U.S.Treasuries and their new Bear market signaled on 2/13/24

posted on: February 14, 2024

Stocks Plunge but bull market unchanged, and precious metals in a Bear market now: Market Reactions to CPI Surprise Overview: Yesterday (2/13/24) morning’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report surpassed expectations, triggering significant market upheaval. The Headline CPI saw a 0.3% month-over-month increase compared to the previous month’s 0.2% rise. This unexpected development led to […]

Critical Stock Market Update: The classical Dow Theory signaled a bull market on 2/8/24

posted on: February 13, 2024

Reminder: The Dow Theory for the 21st Century provides even more precise timing for the stock market I will explain the latest “classical” Dow Theory buy signal in this post. I must state that I don’t trade this kind of Dow Theory, despite its good record of outperformance and drawdown reduction vs. Buy and Hold. […]

Gold’s Downturn? Dow Theory Signals Market Risk Ahead

posted on: February 6, 2024

Setup for a potential primary bear market for GLD and SLV completed Mark Hulbert, known for his keen market timing insights on MarketWatch, recently shared concerns about the longevity of the current gold bull market in this article. It’s worth noting that excessive bullish sentiment can sometimes signal a bearish outlook. Check out his 2/5/23 […]

TLT and IEF Watch: Are Bonds on the Brink of a Primary Bear Market Signal?

posted on: February 2, 2024

Not yet, but the setup for a potential bear market signal in US bonds has been completed. General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it here IEF is the iShares 7-10 […]

Is the U.S. stock market overvalued?

posted on: January 18, 2024

Perhaps it is, but there aren’t many alternatives left I’m not a staunch supporter of fundamentals, but if there’s one I truly endorse, it’s economic freedom as a predictor of future prosperity. The freer the market, the more prosperous the nation, and its stock market mirrors this. Therefore, it doesn’t make sense to me to […]

Use and misuse of the Dow Theory

posted on: January 13, 2024

Not everything touted as Dow Theory is the real thing. No technical analysis system is more abused than the Dow Theory. Some individuals peddle their eccentric notions under its banner to profit from its respectable track record, misrepresenting them as Dow Theory to make a catchy headline. A recent case involves the confusion between the […]

U.S. bonds are in a new primary bull market

posted on: December 29, 2023

This post was challenging to compose. Occasionally, trends don’t conform to a textbook pattern, requiring additional interpretation grounded in sound principles. It won’t be an easy read, but sometimes, sound analysis cannot be compressed into a couple of lines. General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to […]

Primary bull market for SIL and GDX signaled on 12/27/23

posted on: December 28, 2023

The table below summarizes the current state of the trend for the precious metals and their ETF miners. There’s a buzz in the air about the USD. Precious metals making notable strides, the Swiss Franc following suit, and both stocks and crypto appear overextended but with a clear eagerness to climb further. General Remarks: In […]

Setup for a potential primary bull market in SIL and GDX completed on 12/11/23

posted on: December 12, 2023

General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. The primary trend for GDX and SIL turned bearish on 6/20/23. You may find an in-depth […]

Dow Theory Update for November 30: Secondary reaction for SIL and GDX signaled on 11/28/23

posted on: November 30, 2023

General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs (GDX & SIL) A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. The primary trend for GDX and SIL turned bearish on 6/20/23. You may […]