Category: Dow Theory

3 Fundamental Blunders That Led Me to Trend Following

posted on: September 21, 2024

How Misplaced Trust in ‘Expert’ Opinions Led Me to Embrace Technical Analysis If you’ve been following me for a while, you know I firmly believe in trend following. I’ve learned that price action contains most—if not all—the information you need to succeed in the stock market (or any market, for that matter). But why did […]

Not so bullish now: Setup for a potential bear market signal for GDX and SIL completed

posted on: August 31, 2024

The primary trend remains bullish until proven otherwise Overview: GDX and Sil underwent a secondary reaction against the primary bull market. The recent price action resulted in a setup for a potential bear market signal being completed. Please mind the word “potential”, which implies that the primary bull market remains in force. GDX broke up […]

From Indecision to Confirmation: US Bonds Show Clear Bullish Trends

posted on: August 1, 2024

Exploring the Bullish Implications of TLT’s Recent Breakout Overview: On 7/15/24, I wrote that there was indecision concerning the trend for US bonds. Depending on the time frame one got contradictory readings. You can get the details here. The indecision is over. On 7/31/24, TLT (long-term maturity bonds ETF) surged higher, which has bullish implications […]

Gold and Silver ETF miners (GDX & SIL) soar: Primary bull market re-confirmed on 7/16/2024

posted on: July 16, 2024

Gold and Silver are also in a bull market Overview: GDX and Sil underwent a secondary reaction against the primary bull market. Confirmed higher highs by both ETFs have reconfirmed the primary bull market. Gold and Silver are in a bull market of their own, as I explained HERE. I see most assets going to […]

Bonds at crossroads: Contradictory setups completed imply the trend is now unclear

posted on: July 15, 2024

Once hesitation is over, the next move can be explosive. Overview: The bond market is really at a crossroads. Depending on the timeframe applied, we got two contradictory potential signals. The shorter-term application of the Dow Theory, which I favor in cases like this as it is more reactive, completed the setup for a potential […]

Is the Dow Theory Misunderstood? The Truth Behind the Dow Transportation Weakness

posted on: June 29, 2024

Secondary Reaction Highs (Lows): The Key to Market Confirmation Recent weakness in the Dow Jones Transportation Average relative to the Dow Jones Industrial Average has prompted many “experts” to proclaim a bear market signal. They argue that new all-time highs by the Dow Industrials, unconfirmed by the Dow Transports, spell doom for the overall stock […]

SLV and GLD: Evaluating the Secondary Reaction and the Setup for a Potential Primary Bear Market

posted on: June 20, 2024

The primary trend remains bullish Overview: SLV and GLD (silver and gold) are in a secondary reaction, and on 6/20/24, the setup for a potential primary bear market has been completed. The gold and silver miners ETFs (GDX and SIL) are also in a secondary reaction, but no setup for a potential primary bear market […]

Dow Theory Signals Bull Market for Bonds on 6/4/24: Recession or Soft Landing?

posted on: June 6, 2024

US Bonds Turn Bullish: What’s Next for the Economy? Overview: When appraised by the more reactive application of the Dow Theory, the trend of US bonds turned bullish on 6/4/24. The question is: Is the bond market discounting a recession or merely a soft landing resulting in lower inflation? The unemployment rate for May, to […]

Dow Theory Alert: The trend for US bonds could change from bearish to bullish soon. Learn the critical price levels to watch

posted on: June 3, 2024

From Bearish Trend to Potential Bull Market: TLT and IEF Insights Overview: TLT and IEF remain in a primary bear market, but this could change soon. If TLT and IEF jointly surpass their 5/15/24 closing highs, the trend will shift from bearish to bullish. More details are provided below. General Remarks: In this post, I […]

Back to “divergent” interpretations of the Dow Theory

posted on: May 27, 2024

Setting Dow Theory concepts straight amidst so much “fake” Dow Theory. Recent Transport weakness relative to the Dow Industrials prompted many “experts” to proclaim that this is a bear market signal. Let’s clarify the concepts. First, divergence and lack of confirmation, while similar, are not the same and have different implications. Divergence entails one […]

Gold and Silver Surge: Dow Theory Confirms Bullish Primary Trend on 5/17/24.

posted on: May 18, 2024

Overview: Higher confirmed highs by SLV and GLD (silver and gold) have reaffirmed the primary bull market. The secondary reaction is over. The most recent pullback in the gold and silver miners’ ETFs (GDX and SIL) was so modest that it did not qualify as a secondary reaction. So, a bull in full gear. General […]

Alessio Rastani Features TheDowTheory.com: Update on the technical landscape for Bitcoin and Ethereum

posted on: April 29, 2024

Alessio Rastani has a knack for making excellent and content-rich videos. As a follower of Alessio’s work for many years, I can attest that he tends to be on the right side of the markets most of the time. In his latest video, he delves into the current technical landscape of Bitcoin and Ethereum. I’m […]