Category: Investment musings

Why Today’s Stock Market Valuations Are Not Excessive: Liquidity, Capital Accumulation, and the Repricing of Risk

How liquidity and rising wealth explain today’s high valuations in the stock market Introduction Many market commentators warn that stock valuations are dangerously high, pointing to elevated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and market cap-to-GDP levels as evidence of a bubble. These warnings often rely on outdated benchmarks. What was considered expensive fifty years ago isn’t necessarily […]

When fundamental Indicators Break Down, Price Still Leads

The LEI and yield curve missed the mark. Price action and margin debt told the real story, and we listened. For decades, investors leaned heavily on two stalwart indicators: the yield curve and the Leading Economic Index (LEI). These tools had an almost mythic reputation for signaling recessions and bear markets. However, as Jim Paulsen […]

Two new interviews with Alessio Rastani on Youtube

Once again, I was invited by Alessio Rastani to join him in two new videos. Since I was in my 80% work, 20% vacation mission across Europe, I was not fully equipped, so we had to do an “unplugged” performance. No fancy mic, nor headphones or hi-end speakers on my end. Just my reliable laptop, […]

The Real Problem with Buy & Hold—and What to Do About It

Three Smarter Ways to Cut Drawdowns Without Killing Performance The core issue with buy-and-hold investing is simple: drawdowns. Big ones. They may be inevitable, but that doesn’t make them any less damaging—both financially and psychologically. To address this, many investors turn to buffered ETFs, hedging with puts, or going short. But there’s a catch: these […]

Gold and Silver in Sync: The Bull Marches On

Silver Seals the Deal: Bull Market Reconfirmed Overview: On 6/5/25, silver broke above its 10/22/24 highs. It confirmed gold’s previous breakup on 1/30/25. Accordingly, the primary bull market has been confirmed. By the way, the recent price action of SLV and GLD offers a powerful reminder of how the principle of confirmation can protect you […]

Breadth Thrust on April 24th 2025 increases the odds that the bottom is behind us

I reproduce a post on LinkedIn with some additions that I think is relevant to our readers. On April 24, 2025, a Zweig Breadth Thrust signal emerged, a rare and historically bullish indicator for the stock market. Skeptical of social media claims, I verified the signal using TradeStation, my trusted trading software, which confirmed the […]

Key Support Levels for Bitcoin—and the Ethereum Connection

I had the pleasure of joining Maurizio Pedrazzoli for a great interview on his YouTube channel.We analyzed Bitcoin’s trend using both daily and weekly charts and uncovered key support levels that must hold.We also discussed why, whether you like it or not, Ethereum is essential to truly understanding Bitcoin’s trend, and avoid false signals. A […]

Markets on the Edge: A Deep Dive with Andrew Horowitz & Manuel Blay

In our latest conversation, Andrew and I unpacked the recent market rollercoaster—driven by self-inflicted uncertainty and erratic swings. I shared insights drawn from Dow Theory, the recent S&P 500 decline, and what truly defines a valid rally. We also delved into the concept of capitulation, assessed the impact of today’s economic backdrop, and discussed how […]

Free Webinar: Applying The Dow Theory To Assess Market Trends

Secure your place NOW I’m honored to be joining renowned trader and analyst Dean Christians, CMT Christians of SentimenTrader.com for a special public webinar on March 26th, 2025, from 11:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. ET. In today’s turbulent market environment, this event promises to be a must-attend. It will offer a deep dive into sentiment, […]

Rory Guillen of Gillenmarkets.com, a long-time subscriber to our service, has just published a highly insightful article on the most recent Dow Theory for the 21st Century (DT21C) signal. You can read it HERE. The piece offers a clear and practical explanation of how to apply the DT21C, along with its strong track record of […]

Crypto at a Crossroads: Bitcoin’s Bear Trend, MicroStrategy’s Risk, and What Comes Next

Is the bearish trend for Bitcoin nearing its end? Does MicroStrategy’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation pose a hidden risk? And what is the broader crypto space really trying to tell us right now? Had an awesome time joining Alessio Rastani once again—this time diving deep into the world of Bitcoin, crypto trends, and what might be […]

Stock Market Outlook: Key Insights from My Chat with Alessio Rastani

Had a great time joining Alessio Rastani on his YouTube channel! We covered some crucial topics, including the most immediate price action for the stock market and what to watch for in the second half of the year. I also shared key insights on what margin debt is signaling right now—a factor that could have […]