Category: Investment musings
Some Lessons I Have Learned as a Quantitative Trader
posted on: June 17, 2026
Outperformance Comes in Bursts, Pain Comes in Stretches What follows is based on my own experience as a quantitative trader. Other quants, using different models, different universes, or different constraints, may have reached different conclusions. One of the first lessons I have learned is the importance of understanding the universe one is trading. I run […]
Earnings Beat Valuations: Why the U.S. Still Leads
posted on: June 5, 2026
Do Not Underestimate America’s Earnings Machine Do you remember when, just a few months ago, many experts insisted that U.S. stocks were too expensive, while Europe, and even China, offered the real value? I never bought into that thesis. At the time, I wrote several posts (here, here, here and here) warning that so-called “cheap” […]
Warning: Setup for potential primary bear market signal for Gold and Silver completed on 3/31/26
posted on: April 7, 2026
Key price levels to watch are revealed in this post Overview: GLD and SLV underwent a secondary reaction against the primary bull market. The recent price action completed the setup for a potential bear market signal on 3/31/26. Please mind the word “potential”, which implies that the primary bull market remains in force. General Remarks: […]
The Four Industrial Revolutions: Why AI Changes Market Timing Forever
posted on: March 10, 2026
AI makes market timing more necessary than ever. By George Morton, Ph.D The stock market has always reflected the underlying economy, but not all economic transitions are created equal. Over the past 250 years, four industrial revolutions have reshaped how value is created, who captures it, and how fast leadership changes hands. For investors, the […]
Strategic Market Timing for Luxury Superyacht Construction
posted on: January 16, 2026
Super Yacht Builders’ Guide to Counter-Cyclical Growth By George Morton, PhD, January 2026 Executive Summary Dow Theorist Hamilton, in his 1922 book The Stock Market Barometer: A Study of Its Forecast Value, described the averages as a reliable barometer for forecasting trends in business activity (including industrial aspects). He emphasized its predictive power for economic/industrial […]
The Principle of Confirmation Can Save Your Skin (V) / Example 5: Bitcoin’s breakup that was a bull trap
posted on: November 14, 2025
Applying the Confirmation Principle to Bitcoin In four earlier analyses (HERE, HERE, HERE , and HERE ), I showed how the Principle of Confirmation works across U.S. stock indexes, bonds, crypto, and precious metals. In each case, the principle proved invaluable in filtering out false moves. The idea is simple but powerful: a breakout or […]
Gold and Silver Miners ETF at a critical juncture: Setup for a potential Bear market signal completed on 11/10/25
posted on: November 12, 2025
Overview: The gold and silver miners ETF reached a make-or-break moment on 11/10/25. The setup for a potential bear market is complete, and the line in the sand has been drawn. Please mind the word “potential”. Only if the two read lines I show in the chart below are jointly pierced, the trend will shift […]
The Principle of Confirmation Can Save Your Skin (IV) / Example 4: Two Silver Breakdowns That Turned into Bear Traps
posted on: October 25, 2025
Applying the Confirmation Principle to precious metals In three earlier analyses (HERE, HERE, and HERE), I showed how the Principle of Confirmation works across U.S. stock indexes, bonds, and crypto. In each case, the principle proved invaluable in filtering out false moves. The idea is simple but powerful: a breakout or breakdown that is not […]
When Market Timing Meets Quant Research: The Results Speak for Themselves
posted on: October 17, 2025
How world-class quant research and timing filters slash drawdowns and boost returns. What happens when you combine a strong stock-picking strategy with first-class trend following? Something remarkable happens: returns surge, drawdowns shrink, and consistency improves dramatically. That’s exactly what the two charts below reveal. This article was originally a brief social media post, but the […]
Why Bitcoin’s Bull Market Isn’t Over Yet
posted on: October 7, 2025
On October 3rd, I had the pleasure of joining Maurizio Pedrazzoli Grazioli’s podcast for the second time. We picked up right where we left off from our previous conversation—when we called the bottom of Bitcoin on April 8th—and once again, we explored some bold bullish scenarios that, at the time, were far from obvious. Fast […]
Why Today’s Stock Market Valuations Are Not Excessive: Liquidity, Capital Accumulation, and the Repricing of Risk
posted on: September 16, 2025
How liquidity and rising wealth explain today’s high valuations in the stock market Introduction Many market commentators warn that stock valuations are dangerously high, pointing to elevated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and market cap-to-GDP levels as evidence of a bubble. These warnings often rely on outdated benchmarks. What was considered expensive fifty years ago isn’t necessarily […]
When fundamental Indicators Break Down, Price Still Leads
posted on: July 24, 2025
The LEI and yield curve missed the mark. Price action and margin debt told the real story, and we listened. For decades, investors leaned heavily on two stalwart indicators: the yield curve and the Leading Economic Index (LEI). These tools had an almost mythic reputation for signaling recessions and bear markets. However, as Jim Paulsen […]
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