Category: Insights

Dow Theory Special Issue: Secular trend versus long term trend

posted on: July 5, 2013

Case in point GOLD Followers of this Dow Theory blog know I am quite skeptical as to investing along the secular trend. My post “Fundamental versus Technical analysis and Dow Theory. Who is right?” highlights the risks pertaining to investing along the secular trend. When I refer to “secular” trend, I mean trends lasting at […]

Dow Theory Update for July 5: Precious metals listless. Trends unchanged

posted on: July 5, 2013

Stocks closed up Great article on the advantages of market timing Those skeptical as to the benefits of market timing, and its ability to increase slightly profits while drastically reducing drawdowns versusbuy and hold, are advised to read “Timing Method Performance Over Ten Decades“, penned by Mutual Fund Observer. The article delivers a breakdown of […]

Dow Theory Update for July 3: No change in trends

posted on: July 3, 2013

I am writing these words almost two hours before the NY close. From what I see on the charts, there are no changes in trends. Tomorrow I will provide a more ample Dow Theory commentary. Stocks The primary trend and secondary trend is bearish for the reasons explained here, and further explained here. I cannot […]

Dow Theory Update for July 2: Deflationary forces in action

posted on: July 2, 2013

Precious metals and stocks closed down Today is going to be a short Dow Theory commentary, as there are no relevant events. Stocks The SPY, Industrials, and Transports closed down. The primary trend and secondary trend is bearish for the reasons explained here, and further explained here. Today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s, which has […]

Dow Theory Update for June 28: Precious metals rebound or a dead cat bounce?

posted on: June 28, 2013

Primary and secondary trends unchanged. Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today. Stocks The SPY, Industrials, and Transports closed down. The primary trend and secondary trend is bearish for the reasons explained here, and further explained here. Today’s volume was much higher than yesterday’s, which is bearish as volume expanded with declining […]

Dow Theory Update for June 27: Paper gold melting down

posted on: June 27, 2013

Stocks rally on weak volume Time to buy the junior gold miners ETF GDXJ? Mebane Faber of Mebane Faber Research has penned an interesting article named “What happens when you buy assets down 80%”. In the article she analyses the subsequent 3 years return when you buy a sector, industry or country that has declined […]

Dow Theory Update for June 26: Precious metals gap down and fall out of bed

posted on: June 26, 2013

Stocks closed up Piece of wisdom of Gartman, as quoted by Richard Russell. Richard Russell, of the Dow Theory Letters, has nailed it down. When trying to call a bottom in gold, he wrote: “I’m going to be kind and say that gold has put in a base at 1350. I’m going to side with […]

Dow Theory Update for June 25: Stocks closed up. No change in trends

posted on: June 25, 2013

Precious metals listless. Dow Theory and Chinese stocks As you know, the US stock market is in a primary bear market, as I have explained here, and further explained here. I also wrote that less than 5% was lost from peak to trough, which is outstanding timing. So I wanted to see whether the Dow […]

Are Chinese stocks in a bear market?

posted on: June 25, 2013

Chinese stocks and the Dow Theory According to Zero Hedge, the Shanghai composite entered a bear market on June 24, since now it is down -22% from its February highs. Conventional wisdom has it that a bear market is signaled when stocks go down more than 20%. However, is it necessary for investors to wait […]

Dow Theory Update for June 24: Stocks and Gold and silver miners ETFs make lower lows

posted on: June 24, 2013

Digging deeper into a secular bear market Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today. Is the secular bear market still alive? Last Friday when I was assessing the last position taken in pursuance of the Dow Theory, I wrote that my “benchmark” was the average gain and duration of transactions taken during […]

After the dust hast settled: Commentary to the Dow Theory primary bear market signal

posted on: June 21, 2013

Its implications for investors As I announced earlier today on this Dow Theory blog, today a primary bear market has been signaled. Those really interested in understanding the intricacies of this primary bear market signal, and the setup that preceded it, are encouraged to go here (for today’s description of the primary bear market signal), […]

Dow Theory Update for June 21: Primary bear market for stocks signaled today

posted on: June 21, 2013

People long stocks should get ultra careful Let’s give my readers the “meat” straight away, as today the Dow Theory spoke once again. The Transports by closing below its June 5 lows have just signaled a primary bear market. Yesterday, the Industrials and the Transports violated their respective June 5 lows, and for the reasons […]