Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for June 5: Secondary trend for stocks turns bearish

posted on: June 5, 2013

Primary trend for stocks continues bullish. Readers of this Dow Theory blog know that the Dow Theory can be boring for those looking for hectic action. Days pass by and trends remain the same. Well, today is not one of these dull days. According to the Dow Theory, today we can label the secondary trend […]

Dow Theory Update for June4: Time to be out of the market?

posted on: June 4, 2013

Richard Russell of the Dow Theory Letters sees distribution days mounting up In his most-recentDow Theory Letter, Richard Russell pointed out that distribution days (down days with increasing volume) are mounting. Something similar has been penned on this Dow Theory blog here. According to Russell this is not a bullish sign as it shows […]

Dow Theory Update for June 3: Precious metals still trapped in primary bear market in spite of hopefull signals flashed by the miners

posted on: June 3, 2013

Transports fail to rally Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today: The SPY and Industrials closed up. The Transports closed down. No index has been able to break above the most-recent highs. However, it is too early to declare the existence of a secondary reaction for the reasons explain on last […]

Dow Theory special issue: Dissecting the classical/Rhea Dow Theory record. Profit factor and more

posted on: June 1, 2013

Part 2: Final statistics. Eight days ago, I posted “Dissecting the classical/Rhea Dow Theory record.” In that post, I examined vital statistics concerning the positions taken in pursuance of the Dow Theory primary bull and bear market signals. Today, we will expand further our analysis by focusing on: · Win to lose ratio. · What […]

Dow Theory Update for May 31: A Secondary reaction in the making?

posted on: May 31, 2013

Gold and silver unable to show strength Let’s get started with our analysis of the markets under the prism of the Dow Theory Stocks The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down. While it is still too early to declare a secondary reaction in existence, we should keep our eyes glued on the charts. The Transports […]

Dow Theory Update for May 30: Stocks close up but fail again to better recent highs

posted on: May 30, 2013

Gold seems to gain some strength on USD weakness Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary on this blog for today. Stocks The SPY, Transports and Industrials close up. However, no index has been able to better recent highs. The longer this situation persists, the higher the odds for a secondary reaction. The […]

Dow Theory Update for May 29: Yesterday’s higher high by the Industrials remains unconfirmed

posted on: May 29, 2013

Trends remain unchanged The secular bear market is not finished yet Danielle Park of the “Juggling Dynamite” blog, echoing Vitaliy Katsenelson, is of the opinion that the secular bear market in stocks that began in the year 2000 is far from over. PER and profit margins (and record highs) speak against a new secular bull […]

Dow Theory Update for May 28: Industrials make higher high unconfirmed

posted on: May 28, 2013

Precious metals unable to rally Let’s begin with our Dow Theory commentary for today. Stocks The SPY, Transports and Industrials closed up. However, only the Industrials made a higher high. The longer non confirmation by either the SPY or the Transports persist the higher the odds for a secondary reaction to develop. Today’s volume was […]

Dow Theory Update for May 24: No changes in trends

posted on: May 24, 2013

I write these lines two hours before the close, as I will be off for a couple of days. I see on the screens no significant event under Dow Theory. Accordingly, the primary and secondary trend remains unchanged for all the markets I monitor. See you again on May 28th. Sincerely, The Dow Theorist.

Dow Theory special issue: Dissecting the classical/Rhea Dow Theory record

posted on: May 24, 2013

Part I In previous posts of this Dow Theory blog, we occupied themselves with the evaluation of the Dow Theory performance, as explained here. Furthermore, we broke down such data into secular and bull markets as presented here and here. One thread in common was that all these studies focused on a comparison of the […]

Dow Theory Update for May 23: Stocks close down. No change in trends

posted on: May 23, 2013

Gold and silver up. Jon Strebler of the Dow Theory Letters nails it. A couple of days ago, Jon Strebler, Russell’s associate in the Dow Theory Letters, nailed it. He advocated for minimalism in investing. The less noise, the less information, which mostly is random, the better. The bottom line for him is the charts. […]

Dow Theory update for May 22: Bearish action in both stocks and precious metals

posted on: May 22, 2013

Trends remain unchanged Richard Russell of the Dow Theory Letters sees no distribution in the stock market. Readers of this Dow Theory blog know that I observed an improvement in volume readings in the last few days (with today’s exception). It seems Richard Russell has reached similar conclusions, as in his last two Dow Theory […]