Category: Insights

Dow Theory special issue: Revisiting the BLV/GLD ratio

posted on: December 19, 2012

Still at crossroads? We have dealt with the BLV/GLD ratio on several occasions in this Dow Theory blog. To understand why this ratio is important, I suggest you read here and here the relevant posts to get a taste of it. If the ratio turns bearish (stronger gold) it means a hard time […]

Dow Theory Update for Dec 19: Bearish parade

posted on: December 19, 2012

No change in trends. Since there are no changes in trends, today it is going to be a short post in this Dow Theory blog. Furthermore, I hope to post later this evening a more important post concerning the BLV/GLD ratio (long-term bond/gold). The SPY and the Industrials closed down today. The Transports […]

Dow Theory Update for Dec 18: Stocks just about to signal primary bull market signal

posted on: December 18, 2012

Gold and silver just about to signal primary bear market signal Today has been an interesting day for those that analyze the markets under the Dow Theory. The SPY, the Industrials and the Transports closed firmly up. The Transports by closing at 5310.75 clearly broke above the 06/19/2012 high of 5250.54. However, the SPY […]

Dow Theory Update for Dec 17: Stocks up. No change in trends

posted on: December 17, 2012

Gold and silver indecisive Let’s review the state of the stock market under the prism of the Dow Theory. The SPY, Transports and the Industrials closed up. Technically, nothing has been accomplished. However, if this rally continues and the highest highs hitherto made are jointly bettered by at least two indices, then a primary […]

Dow Theory Update for Dec 14: Stocks down. Precious metals mixed

posted on: December 14, 2012

Under Dow Theory nothing has changed Let’s begin with our Dow Theory analysis for today in this blog. What are other Dow Theorists doing? Richard Russell, of the “Dow Theory Letters”, who was turning mildly bullish (or at least not outright bearish short term) is turning bearish again. He hoped that the last rally was […]

Dow Theory Update for Dec 13: QE sputtering out

posted on: December 13, 2012

Stocks and precious metals down Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary in this blog. The SPY and the Industrials closed down. The Transports closed up. The primary trend remains bearish and the secondary bullish. Volume was down today. Since stocks closed down today, it has a bullish connotation, as the decline was not […]

Dow Theory Update for Dec 12: Indecisive day for stocks

posted on: December 12, 2012

Gold, silver and their miners up Let’s try to gauge the pulse of the markets armed with our Dow Theory tools in this blog. Today the SPY closed up (barely) whereas the Industrials and Transports closed down. The primary trend remains bearish and the secondary trend bullish. As to volume, I consider it a neutral […]

Dow Theory Update for Dec 11: Stocks up. No change in trends

posted on: December 11, 2012

Precious metals mostly down. Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today. The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The primary trend remains bearish and the secondary trend (secondary reaction) bullish. Volume was higher than yesterday’s and since today was an up day, it has a bullish connotation (at last!). The overall pattern […]

Dow Theory Update for Dec 10: No change of trends under the Dow Theory

posted on: December 10, 2012

Mildly bullish day Before I start with our Dow Theory commentary, you may be may be interested in reading my post in this blog entitled “Don’t fall in love with your stocks! Love is always dangerous” which you can find here. Today was a mildly bullish day. The SPY barely nudged up. The Industrials […]

Don’t fall in love with your stocks! Love is always dangerous

posted on: December 10, 2012

How to develop confidence in the Dow Theory Today I read two good posts that highlight the importance of not falling in love with your stocks. In the “Systematic Relative Strength” blog, there is an interesting post concerning the risk of loving one stock. Please click here. In the “Big Picture” blog, there is another […]

Dow Theory Update for Dec 7: Stocks and precious metals up

posted on: December 7, 2012

No changes in trends. What are other Dow Theorists saying? Richard Russell, of the Dow Theory Letters fame, is mixed (as far as I can conclude). He says that as long as the 11/15/2012 lows are not violated there is hope for the bulls. However, until the October highs are not broken out, he will […]

Dow Theory Update for Dec 6: Stocks mildly up. No changes in trends

posted on: December 6, 2012

Gold and silver barely up. Let’s begin with our analysis of the markets under the Dow Theory. The SPY and the Industrials closed up. The Transports barely down. Volume was lower than yesterday’s and given that the SPY closed up today, it has a bearish connotation, as the upward move was not supported by volume. […]